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CheckWeather USMaryvale
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 4°F

Maryvale weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model put Maryvale's high today between 101° and 105°, a 4° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 105°, with a 4% chance of rain.

102°84°
105°83°
105°83°
107°88°
105°87°
106°89°
Todaysplit ±4°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
101°
Partly cloudy
Today 101°·Low 83°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
105°
Cloudy
Today 105°·Low 84°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
101°
Partly cloudy
Today 101°·Low 84°·Rain 19%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Maryvale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
102° 84°
±4°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
105° 83°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
105° 83°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
107° 88°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
105° 87°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
106° 89°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
103° 87°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
100° 84°
±4°
Sun
Mostly clear
99° 83°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
100° 85°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
101° 85°
±7°
Wed
Drizzle
98° 85°
±9°
Thu
Showers
97° 81°
models agree
Fri
Showers
97° 81°
models agree

Maryvale, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 110°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 41°F), with roughly 8 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Maryvale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Maryvale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
62°
41°
Feb
67°
44°
Mar
71°
48°
Apr
86°
57°
May
94°
68°
Jun
103°
77°
Jul
110°
87°
Aug
106°
85°
Sep
102°
76°
Oct
93°
65°
Nov
75°
51°
Dec
70°
47°

Which forecast is most accurate in Maryvale?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
95±0.5°F97±1.0 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
68
/100rank #2
82±1.8°F90±3.1 mph3665% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±4°101° to 105°±16%3% to 19% chance
Tomorrow±1°105° to 106°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±4°104° to 107°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±3°106° to 109°±1%2% to 3% chance
Wed±3°104° to 106°models agree10% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Maryvale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:05
Sunset
18:48
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Maryvale today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Maryvale today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Maryvale today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Maryvale and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Maryvale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Maryvale (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 68. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Maryvale?
July is typically the warmest month in Maryvale, with average highs around 110°F.
How cold does Maryvale get?
The coldest month in Maryvale is January, when overnight lows average about 41°F.
How much rain does Maryvale get?
Maryvale sees roughly 8 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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