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CheckWeather USDeer Valley
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Deer Valley weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 100° in Deer Valley today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 104°, with a 4% chance of rain.

100°81°
104°81°
105°82°
106°86°
103°87°
105°89°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
99°
Partly cloudy
Today 99°·Low 81°·Rain 4%
AmericanNOAA GFS
101°
Cloudy
Today 101°·Low 82°·Rain 4%
EuropeanECMWF
100°
Cloudy
Today 100°·Low 81°·Rain 16%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Deer Valley and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
100° 81°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
104° 81°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
105° 82°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
106° 86°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
103° 87°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
105° 89°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
102° 87°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
99° 83°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
97° 81°
±5°
Mon
Light drizzle
99° 84°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
100° 84°
±7°
Wed
Thunderstorm
98° 87°
±8°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
95° 82°
models agree
Fri
Showers
95° 80°
models agree

Deer Valley, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 109°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 11 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Deer Valley right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Deer Valley climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
61°
42°
Feb
65°
45°
Mar
69°
49°
Apr
84°
58°
May
92°
67°
Jun
102°
76°
Jul
109°
86°
Aug
105°
83°
Sep
100°
76°
Oct
91°
66°
Nov
74°
52°
Dec
70°
47°

Which forecast is most accurate in Deer Valley?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F95±1.4 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
89±1.1°F91±2.9 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°99° to 101°±12%4% to 16% chance
Tomorrow±1°104° to 104°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±3°104° to 107°±3%0% to 3% chance
Tue±3°105° to 108°±1%3% to 4% chance
Wed±2°102° to 105°models agree10% to 10% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Deer Valley

today, local time
Sunrise
06:05
Sunset
18:48
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Deer Valley today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Deer Valley today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Deer Valley today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Deer Valley and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Deer Valley?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Deer Valley (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Deer Valley?
July is typically the warmest month in Deer Valley, with average highs around 109°F.
How cold does Deer Valley get?
The coldest month in Deer Valley is January, when overnight lows average about 42°F.
How much rain does Deer Valley get?
Deer Valley sees roughly 11 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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