Surprise weather
Loading live data…Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 76° in Surprise today. Tomorrow: clear, around 80°, with a 1% chance of rain.
Latest for Surprise: NWS (National Blend (NBM)): 60° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 60° Clear · European (ECMWF): 58° Clear.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Surprise weather alerts and warnings
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisoriesChecking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Surprise…
Surprise weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherSurprise swings 66°F across the year, from 106°F highs in July to 40°F lows in December, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 9 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 245 days a year at 77°F or above, 189 of them at 86°F or above, 1 frost night, and rain on 32 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Surprise’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Surprise and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Surprise hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Surprise 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitSurprise, Arizona (AZ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 106°F) and coldest in Dec (lows around 40°F), with roughly 9 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Surprise right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Surprise climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How the weather around Surprise has changed since 1995
Surprise sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Peoria. That square ran 1.6°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Peoria page.
Which forecast is most accurate in Surprise?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.