Surprise weather
Loading live data…Cloudy,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 101° in Surprise today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 105°, with a 4% chance of rain.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Surprise and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Next 14 hours
consensus of the three models14-day forecast
where the models agree, and where they splitSurprise, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 111°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 42°F), with roughly 8 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Surprise right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Surprise climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical yearWhich forecast is most accurate in Surprise?
CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.