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CheckWeather USCelina
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Celina weather

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Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 98° in Celina today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 98°, with a 14% chance of rain.

98°78°
98°79°
99°79°
102°82°
101°81°
99°79°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±4°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
97°
Mostly clear
Today 97°·Low 78°·Rain 1%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Mostly clear
Today 98°·Low 78°·Rain 1%
EuropeanECMWF
99°
Light drizzle
Today 99°·Low 78°·Rain 25%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Celina and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
98° 78°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
98° 79°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
99° 79°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
102° 82°
±6°
Wed
Mostly clear
101° 81°
±5°
Thu
Mostly clear
99° 79°
±4°
Fri
Mostly clear
100° 81°
±7°
Sat
Clear
100° 81°
±6°
Sun
Drizzle
99° 80°
±8°
Mon
Light drizzle
94° 74°
±11°
Tue
Light drizzle
86° 72°
±19°
Wed
Cloudy
89° 69°
±12°
Thu
Clear
89° 66°
±11°
Fri
Clear
94° 70°
±9°

Celina, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 100°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 36°F), with roughly 50 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Celina right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Celina climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
54°
36°
Feb
62°
43°
Mar
68°
49°
Apr
74°
55°
May
83°
65°
Jun
91°
72°
Jul
95°
76°
Aug
100°
79°
Sep
90°
71°
Oct
81°
61°
Nov
67°
48°
Dec
60°
42°

Which forecast is most accurate in Celina?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
89±1.1°F93±2.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #2
90±1.0°F93±2.1 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°97° to 99°±24%1% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±1°98° to 99°±11%3% to 14% chance
Mon±3°98° to 101°±12%2% to 14% chance
Tue±6°99° to 104°±15%3% to 18% chance
Wed±5°98° to 102°±5%1% to 6% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Celina

today, local time
Sunrise
07:04
Sunset
19:47
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Celina today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Celina today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Celina today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Celina and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Celina?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Celina (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the American at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Celina?
August is typically the warmest month in Celina, with average highs around 100°F.
How cold does Celina get?
The coldest month in Celina is January, when overnight lows average about 36°F.
How much rain does Celina get?
Celina sees roughly 50 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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