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Little Elm weather

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The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Little Elm and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split

Little Elm, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 99°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 51 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Little Elm right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Little Elm climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
55°
37°
Feb
63°
44°
Mar
69°
51°
Apr
74°
57°
May
83°
67°
Jun
91°
74°
Jul
94°
77°
Aug
99°
80°
Sep
90°
72°
Oct
81°
62°
Nov
67°
51°
Dec
60°
44°

Which forecast is most accurate in Little Elm?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
65±3.5°F94±1.9 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #2
59±4.1°F88±3.7 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Common questions

What's the weather in Little Elm today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Little Elm today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Little Elm today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Little Elm and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Little Elm?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Little Elm (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the American at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Little Elm?
August is typically the warmest month in Little Elm, with average highs around 99°F.
How cold does Little Elm get?
The coldest month in Little Elm is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does Little Elm get?
Little Elm sees roughly 51 in of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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