Dallas (DFW) weather
Loading live data…Cloudy,much the same tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 84° in Dallas today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 81°, with a 1% chance of rain.
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Dallas weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherDallas swings 57°F across the year, from 94°F highs in August to 37°F lows in January, and May is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 37 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 197 days a year at 77°F or above, 124 of them at 86°F or above, 18 frost nights, and rain on 113 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Dallas’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Dallas and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Dallas in 3D: the weather on the streets, hour by hour
Rain, sun and real shadows drawn on a 3D map of Dallas, 48 hours ahead. Drag the timeline, pick what you are doing or where you are going, and read the verdict for that hour.Full screen ↗What are you doing?
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Dallas hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Dallas 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitDallas, Texas (TX). Often shortened to DFW. Below we compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Dallas right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Dallas's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
Dallas weather by month
what to expect in Dallas through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Dallas's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °F, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Dallas by season.
What Dallas's weather is like through the year
Dallas runs from warm summers, with August highs near 94°F, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 37°F (a swing of about 57°F across the year). May is usually the wettest month, and Dallas sees roughly 37 inches of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Dallas
The most comfortable time to visit Dallas is usually February, March, April and October, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 60-78°F range and the heaviest May rain is behind you.
How Dallas' weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Dallas, 2015-2024 averaged 1.4°F warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2023.
Days above 95°F
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 32°F. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >95°F vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −1.5°F | −18 | +6 | +2% |
| 1996 | −1.0°F | −1 | +18 | +11% |
| 1997 | −2.4°F | −1 | +8 | −2% |
| 1998 | +1.4°F | +38 | −10 | +2% |
| 1999 | +1.2°F | −3 | −16 | +5% |
| 2000 | −0.1°F | +19 | +7 | +5% |
| 2001 | −1.3°F | −15 | +2 | −2% |
| 2002 | −1.5°F | −16 | +5 | −2% |
| 2003 | −0.2°F | −3 | +9 | −2% |
| 2004 | −1.0°F | −43 | −4 | −2% |
| 2005 | +1.0°F | +30 | −12 | −7% |
| 2006 | +1.7°F | +20 | −16 | +7% |
| 2007 | −2.0°F | −58 | +11 | −7% |
| 2008 | −0.6°F | −2 | +4 | +7% |
| 2009 | −1.3°F | +1 | +2 | +2% |
| 2010 | −1.3°F | +6 | +11 | −2% |
| 2011 | +1.9°F | +42 | +7 | +7% |
| 2012 | +1.7°F | +9 | −14 | −2% |
| 2013 | −1.0°F | +9 | +15 | −2% |
| 2014 | −1.5°F | −12 | +12 | +2% |
| 2015 | −0.2°F | −4 | +3 | −7% |
| 2016 | +0.3°F | −29 | −8 | −4% |
| 2017 | +1.2°F | −25 | −16 | +0% |
| 2018 | −0.2°F | +17 | +4 | +0% |
| 2019 | −0.4°F | +7 | +3 | +0% |
| 2020 | +0.1°F | −11 | −15 | +0% |
| 2021 | +0.3°F | −21 | −11 | −2% |
| 2022 | +1.6°F | +29 | +13 | +2% |
| 2023 | +2.6°F | +35 | −11 | −4% |
| 2024 | +2.5°F | +7 | −17 | −4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Dallas, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Dallas?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Dallas, scoring 96/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the American at 82. See the full US accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.