Skip to main content
Every US forecast, compared
checkweather.io
CheckWeather USMcKinney
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

McKinney weather

Loading live data…

Mostly clear,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 97° in McKinney today. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 98°, with a 8% chance of rain.

97°77°
98°78°
99°79°
101°81°
100°80°
98°78°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±6°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
98°
Light drizzle
Today 98°·Low 78°·Rain 3%
AmericanNOAA GFS
98°
Mostly clear
Today 98°·Low 77°·Rain 3%
EuropeanECMWF
96°
Mostly clear
Today 96°·Low 77°·Rain 25%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around McKinney and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Mostly clear
97° 77°
models agree
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
98° 78°
models agree
Mon
Mostly clear
99° 79°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
101° 81°
±6°
Wed
Clear
100° 80°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
98° 78°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
100° 80°
models agree
Sat
Mostly clear
100° 80°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
98° 79°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
95° 73°
±9°
Tue
Light drizzle
86° 72°
±17°
Wed
Cloudy
88° 68°
±10°
Thu
Clear
88° 65°
±9°
Fri
Clear
93° 67°
±6°

McKinney, TX is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 99°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 37°F), with roughly 55 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for McKinney right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

McKinney climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
54°
37°
Feb
62°
44°
Mar
68°
50°
Apr
74°
56°
May
82°
66°
Jun
90°
73°
Jul
94°
76°
Aug
99°
79°
Sep
90°
71°
Oct
81°
62°
Nov
67°
49°
Dec
59°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in McKinney?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
92±0.8°F94±1.8 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
87
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°96° to 98°±22%3% to 25% chance
Tomorrow±2°97° to 99°±5%3% to 8% chance
Monmodels agree99° to 99°±7%1% to 8% chance
Tue±6°99° to 104°±5%5% to 10% chance
Wed±4°98° to 102°±2%2% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in McKinney

today, local time
Sunrise
07:03
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in McKinney today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for McKinney today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in McKinney today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for McKinney and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for McKinney?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for McKinney (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the European at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in McKinney?
August is typically the warmest month in McKinney, with average highs around 99°F.
How cold does McKinney get?
The coldest month in McKinney is January, when overnight lows average about 37°F.
How much rain does McKinney get?
McKinney sees roughly 55 in of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More US weather