Swansea weather
Loading live data…Heavy rain,rain likely tomorrow
Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Swansea today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 66% chance of rain.
Latest for Swansea: Met Office (UKMO model): 13° Rain · European (ECMWF): 13° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 13° Rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Swansea weather warnings
Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for WalesChecking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…
Swansea weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherSwansea swings 16°C across the year, from 19°C highs in August to 3°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1375 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 6 days a year at 25°C or above, 16 frost nights, and rain on 188 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Swansea’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Swansea and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Swansea hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Swansea 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitSwansea, Wales. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Swansea right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Swansea's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
Swansea weather by month
what to expect in Swansea through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Swansea's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Swansea by season.
What Swansea's weather is like through the year
Swansea runs from warm summers, with August highs near 19°C, to cool winters, when January lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 16°C across the year). October is usually the wettest month, and Swansea sees roughly 1375 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Swansea
The most comfortable time to visit Swansea is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.
How Swansea's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Swansea, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | ±0.0°C | +3 | −1% |
| 1996 | −1.3°C | +15 | +1% |
| 1997 | ±0.0°C | +5 | −3% |
| 1998 | −0.1°C | −3 | +8% |
| 1999 | +0.1°C | −4 | +2% |
| 2000 | −0.2°C | −6 | +4% |
| 2001 | −0.4°C | −2 | −4% |
| 2002 | ±0.0°C | −6 | +4% |
| 2003 | ±0.0°C | +1 | −3% |
| 2004 | ±0.0°C | −5 | −1% |
| 2005 | ±0.0°C | −3 | −1% |
| 2006 | +0.2°C | −4 | +2% |
| 2007 | +0.3°C | −5 | +1% |
| 2008 | −0.4°C | −4 | +8% |
| 2009 | −0.3°C | +5 | −1% |
| 2010 | −1.3°C | +25 | −10% |
| 2011 | +0.1°C | +3 | +2% |
| 2012 | −0.6°C | +2 | −1% |
| 2013 | −0.7°C | +15 | +1% |
| 2014 | +0.5°C | −6 | −1% |
| 2015 | −0.1°C | −6 | +8% |
| 2016 | −0.1°C | −6 | −3% |
| 2017 | +0.2°C | −5 | +1% |
| 2018 | +0.1°C | +5 | −1% |
| 2019 | +0.1°C | −6 | −3% |
| 2020 | +0.3°C | −6 | +8% |
| 2021 | +0.1°C | +0 | −6% |
| 2022 | +0.8°C | −4 | −4% |
| 2023 | +0.8°C | −6 | −1% |
| 2024 | +0.5°C | −5 | −4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Swansea, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Swansea?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Swansea, scoring 93/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 86. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.