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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Penicuik weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Penicuik today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 8°, with a 100% chance of rain.

10°2°
8°6°
14°6°
15°6°
11°7°
12°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
8°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 3° · Wind 18 mph · Humidity 87%
EuropeanECMWF
8°
Light rain
Feels 1° · Wind 23 mph · Humidity 96%
AmericanNOAA GFS
8°
Light rain
Feels 2° · Wind 22 mph · Humidity 88%

Latest for Penicuik: Met Office (UKMO model): 8° Heavy drizzle · European (ECMWF): 8° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 8° Light rain.

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Penicuik weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders…

Penicuik weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Penicuik swings 16°C across the year, from 17°C highs in July to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1037 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 1 day a year at 25°C or above, 49 frost nights, and rain on 177 days.

Warmest month
July
17°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
1037 mm a year
Comfortable
3 months
June, July and August
Residents
16,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
Met Office
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
1 day
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
49 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
177 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Penicuik’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Penicuik and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Penicuik hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Penicuik 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
10° 2°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
8° 6°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
14° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 6°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12° 7°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
10° 5°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
9° 6°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
10° 4°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
6° 1°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
6° 1°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
6° 0°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
6° 1°
±4°

Penicuik, Scotland is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 17°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1037 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Penicuik right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Penicuik climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
5°
1°
Feb
5°
1°
Mar
7°
2°
Apr
10°
3°
May
13°
6°
Jun
16°
8°
Jul
17°
10°
Aug
17°
11°
Sep
14°
8°
Oct
11°
6°
Nov
8°
3°
Dec
5°
1°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Penicuik has changed since 1995

Penicuik sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Edinburgh. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Edinburgh page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Penicuik?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C94±1.8 mph9597% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
89
/100rank #2
96±0.2°C97±0.9 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #3
92±0.5°C95±1.6 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°10° to 11°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°8° to 9°±1%99% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 15°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±29%71% to 100% chance
Wed±2°10° to 11°±48%52% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Penicuik

today, local time
Sunrise
08:02
Sunset
17:50
Daylight
9h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Penicuik today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Penicuik today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 8°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Penicuik today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Penicuik on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 99% (Met Office 100%, European 100%, American 99%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Penicuik?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Penicuik (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the European at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Penicuik?
July is typically the warmest month in Penicuik, with average highs around 17°C.
How cold does Penicuik get?
The coldest month in Penicuik is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Penicuik get?
Penicuik sees roughly 1037 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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