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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Bonnyrigg weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Bonnyrigg today. Tomorrow: rain, around 9°, with a 100% chance of rain.

11°3°
9°7°
15°7°
15°7°
11°7°
12°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
11°
Rain
Today 11°·Low 3°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
10°
Light rain
Today 10°·Low 3°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Rain
Today 11°·Low 4°·Rain 100%
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Bonnyrigg weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Dumfries, Galloway, Lothian & Borders…

Bonnyrigg weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Bonnyrigg swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 944 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 1 day a year at 25°C or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 169 days.

Warmest month
July
18°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
944 mm a year
Comfortable
3 months
June, July and August
Residents
18,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
1 day
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
29 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
169 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Bonnyrigg’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Bonnyrigg and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Bonnyrigg hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Bonnyrigg 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
11° 3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
9° 7°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12° 7°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
11° 6°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
10° 7°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
10° 4°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
6° 2°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
7° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
6° 1°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
7° 2°
±5°

Bonnyrigg, Scotland is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 944 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Bonnyrigg right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Bonnyrigg climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
2°
Feb
7°
2°
Mar
8°
3°
Apr
11°
4°
May
13°
7°
Jun
16°
9°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
15°
9°
Oct
12°
7°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
6°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Bonnyrigg has changed since 1995

Bonnyrigg sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Edinburgh. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Edinburgh page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Bonnyrigg?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C96±1.2 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
90
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C93±2.2 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
88
/100rank #3
94±0.3°C95±1.7 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°10° to 11°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°8° to 9°±2%98% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±7%93% to 100% chance
Tue±1°14° to 16°±32%68% to 100% chance
Wed±2°10° to 12°±55%45% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Bonnyrigg

today, local time
Sunrise
08:02
Sunset
17:50
Daylight
9h 48m

Common questions

What's the weather in Bonnyrigg today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Bonnyrigg today. Tomorrow: rain, around 9°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Bonnyrigg today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Bonnyrigg on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 98% (Met Office 100%, European 100%, American 98%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Bonnyrigg?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Bonnyrigg (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the American at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Bonnyrigg?
July is typically the warmest month in Bonnyrigg, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Bonnyrigg get?
The coldest month in Bonnyrigg is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Bonnyrigg get?
Bonnyrigg sees roughly 944 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

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