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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Edinburgh weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Edinburgh today. Tomorrow looks light drizzle around 17°, with a 88% chance of rain.

19°12°
17°12°
15°10°
17°10°
17°10°
17°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±3°Wednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±3°
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 14°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 12°·Rain 44%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Heavy drizzle
Today 19°·Low 12°·Rain 52%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Edinburgh and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 10°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 12°
±3°
Sat
Light rain
15°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
16° 13°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±4°
Tue
Drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
15° 10°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
16° 10°
±5°
Fri
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
15°
±5°

Edinburgh, Scotland. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Edinburgh right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Edinburgh's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Edinburgh weather by month

what to expect in Edinburgh through the year

Here is Edinburgh's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Edinburgh by season.

Jan
Cold
Feb
Cool
Mar
Cool
Apr
11°
Cool
May
15°
Mild
Jun
17°
10°
Mild
Jul
18°
12°
Mild
Aug
18°
12°
Mild
Sep
16°
10°
Mild
Oct
13°
Cool
Wettest
Nov
Cool
Dec
Cool

What Edinburgh's weather is like through the year

Edinburgh runs from warm summers, with July highs near 18°C, to cool winters, when January lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 15°C across the year). October is usually the wettest month, and Edinburgh sees roughly 1114 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Edinburgh

The most comfortable time to visit Edinburgh is usually June, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Edinburgh?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
Met Office logo
Met Office ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C96±1.4 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
European logo
European
83
/100rank #2
80±1.1°C97±1.1 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C96±1.3 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the Met Office model has been the most accurate forecast for Edinburgh, scoring 86/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the European at 83. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 20°±8%44% to 52% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±31%57% to 88% chance
Tue±3°13° to 16°±19%73% to 92% chance
Wed±2°16° to 18°±1%6% to 7% chance
Thu±1°17° to 18°±27%26% to 53% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Edinburgh

today, local time
Sunrise
06:27
Sunset
19:55
Daylight
13h 28m

Common questions

What's the weather in Edinburgh today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Edinburgh today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Edinburgh today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Edinburgh and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Edinburgh?
Over the last 30 days, the Met Office model has been the most accurate for Edinburgh (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the European at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Edinburgh?
July is typically the warmest month in Edinburgh, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Edinburgh get?
The coldest month in Edinburgh is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Edinburgh get?
Edinburgh sees roughly 1114 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Edinburgh?
The most comfortable time to visit Edinburgh is usually June, July, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Edinburgh?
Rarely - Edinburgh very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

Nearby

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