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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Newry weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Newry today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain.

14°5°
10°7°
16°6°
15°8°
14°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Light rain
Today 13°·Low 5°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Showers
Today 14°·Low 5°·Rain 100%
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Newry weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Northern Ireland

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Northern Ireland…

Newry weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Newry swings 17°C across the year, from 19°C highs in August to 2°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 972 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 2 days a year at 25°C or above, 18 frost nights, and rain on 181 days.

Warmest month
August
19°C average high
Coldest month
February
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
972 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
28,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
2 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
18 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
181 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Newry’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Newry and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Newry hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Newry 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
14° 5°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
10° 7°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
16° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
models agree
Fri
Light rain
13° 9°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
10° 7°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
11° 4°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
8° 3°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
9° 1°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
10° 3°
±4°

Newry, Northern Ireland is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 2°C), with roughly 972 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Newry right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Newry climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
3°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
11°
4°
May
14°
7°
Jun
17°
10°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
19°
12°
Sep
16°
9°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
8°
4°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Newry's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.3°C

Around Newry, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

1995: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −0.8°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average1998: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1999: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2003: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2018: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2020: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Frost nights

1 fewer night a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5 vs the 30-year average1996: +0 vs the 30-year average1997: +0 vs the 30-year average1998: −2 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: +1 vs the 30-year average2001: +4 vs the 30-year average2002: −2 vs the 30-year average2003: −3 vs the 30-year average2004: +0 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: +0 vs the 30-year average2007: −2 vs the 30-year average2008: −3 vs the 30-year average2009: +1 vs the 30-year average2010: +20 vs the 30-year average2011: +1 vs the 30-year average2012: −2 vs the 30-year average2013: +1 vs the 30-year average2014: −3 vs the 30-year average2015: −2 vs the 30-year average2016: −3 vs the 30-year average2017: −2 vs the 30-year average2018: +6 vs the 30-year average2019: −1 vs the 30-year average2020: −3 vs the 30-year average2021: −3 vs the 30-year average2022: −3 vs the 30-year average2023: +0 vs the 30-year average2024: −1 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−3%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5% vs the 30-year average1996: +2% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: +7% vs the 30-year average1999: +7% vs the 30-year average2000: +2% vs the 30-year average2001: −7% vs the 30-year average2002: +3% vs the 30-year average2003: −2% vs the 30-year average2004: +2% vs the 30-year average2005: +2% vs the 30-year average2006: −0% vs the 30-year average2007: −0% vs the 30-year average2008: +5% vs the 30-year average2009: +2% vs the 30-year average2010: −12% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −2% vs the 30-year average2015: +5% vs the 30-year average2016: −5% vs the 30-year average2017: −0% vs the 30-year average2018: −2% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: +5% vs the 30-year average2021: −9% vs the 30-year average2022: −2% vs the 30-year average2023: −2% vs the 30-year average2024: −0% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995+0.1°C+5+5%
1996−0.8°C+0+2%
1997+0.3°C+0−2%
1998+0.1°C−2+7%
1999±0.0°C−1+7%
2000−0.2°C+1+2%
2001−0.4°C+4−7%
2002+0.1°C−2+3%
2003+0.2°C−3−2%
2004+0.1°C+0+2%
2005+0.3°C−3+2%
2006+0.4°C+0−0%
2007+0.4°C−2−0%
2008−0.3°C−3+5%
2009−0.2°C+1+2%
2010−1.1°C+20−12%
2011±0.0°C+1+2%
2012−0.5°C−2−2%
2013−0.6°C+1+2%
2014+0.2°C−3−2%
2015−0.5°C−2+5%
2016−0.1°C−3−5%
2017+0.1°C−2−0%
2018±0.0°C+6−2%
2019+0.1°C−1−2%
2020±0.0°C−3+5%
2021+0.4°C−3−9%
2022+0.7°C−3−2%
2023+0.9°C+0−2%
2024+0.5°C−1−0%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Newry, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Newry?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C97±1.0 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
86
/100rank #2
92±0.5°C96±1.3 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
84
/100rank #3
88±0.7°C90±3.1 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°13° to 14°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°10° to 11°±39%61% to 100% chance
Mon±1°16° to 17°±5%95% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±49%51% to 100% chance
Wed±2°13° to 15°±42%25% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Newry

today, local time
Sunrise
08:10
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
9h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Newry today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Newry today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 10°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Newry today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Newry on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 61% (Met Office 100%, European 90%, American 61%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Newry?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Newry (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the American at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Newry?
August is typically the warmest month in Newry, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Newry get?
The coldest month in Newry is February, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Newry get?
Newry sees roughly 972 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Newry getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Newry, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.3°C, within the normal swing from year to year.

Nearby

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