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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Armagh weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in Armagh today. Tomorrow looks light rain around 16°, with a 86% chance of rain.

20°15°
16°11°
15°
16°10°
18°11°
16°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Light rain
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 94%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Armagh and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
16° 11°
±2°
Tue
Light drizzle
15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
17°
models agree
Sun
Drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
19° 10°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
15°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
16°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
16°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
15°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
16°
±3°

Armagh, Northern Ireland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1057 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Armagh right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Armagh climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
17°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
18°
11°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
14°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Armagh?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
79
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C96±1.1 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
75
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C91±2.7 mph5374% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 20°±10%84% to 94% chance
Tomorrow±2°15° to 17°±13%73% to 86% chance
Tuemodels agree14° to 15°±14%71% to 85% chance
Wed±1°16° to 17°±13%12% to 25% chance
Thu±2°17° to 18°±12%46% to 58% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Armagh

today, local time
Sunrise
06:43
Sunset
20:06
Daylight
13h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Armagh today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Armagh today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Armagh today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Armagh and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Armagh?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Armagh (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the American at 79. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Armagh?
June is typically the warmest month in Armagh, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Armagh get?
The coldest month in Armagh is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Armagh get?
Armagh sees roughly 1057 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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