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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Downpatrick weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 18° in Downpatrick today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 17°, with a 85% chance of rain.

18°15°
17°12°
15°10°
17°11°
17°12°
17°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
18°
Rain
Today 18°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Light drizzle
Today 19°·Low 16°·Rain 53%
AmericanNOAA GFS
17°
Drizzle
Today 17°·Low 15°·Rain 87%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Downpatrick and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
18° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Tue
Heavy drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 12°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
17° 10°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
19° 13°
±2°
Mon
Light rain
18° 11°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
16° 10°
±3°
Wed
Light drizzle
16°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 10°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
16°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
15°
±3°

Downpatrick, Northern Ireland is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1173 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Downpatrick right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Downpatrick climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
Apr
11°
May
15°
Jun
17°
11°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
16°
11°
Oct
14°
10°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Downpatrick?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±1.4 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
85
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C96±1.3 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #3
88±0.6°C93±2.1 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°17° to 19°±34%53% to 87% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 18°±14%71% to 85% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±24%58% to 82% chance
Wedmodels agree17° to 17°±4%10% to 14% chance
Thu±2°16° to 18°±17%42% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Downpatrick

today, local time
Sunrise
06:39
Sunset
20:02
Daylight
13h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Downpatrick today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Downpatrick today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Downpatrick today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Downpatrick and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Downpatrick?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Downpatrick (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Downpatrick?
August is typically the warmest month in Downpatrick, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Downpatrick get?
The coldest month in Downpatrick is January, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Downpatrick get?
Downpatrick sees roughly 1173 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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