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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Newtownards weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Newtownards today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 11°, with a 67% chance of rain.

14°5°
11°7°
16°7°
15°9°
13°9°
13°9°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
13°
Light rain
Today 13°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 4°·Rain 100%
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Newtownards weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Northern Ireland

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Northern Ireland…

Newtownards weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Newtownards swings 15°C across the year, from 18°C highs in August to 3°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 973 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 1 day a year at 25°C or above, 5 frost nights, and rain on 171 days.

Warmest month
August
18°C average high
Coldest month
February
3°C average low
Wettest month
October
973 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
29,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
1 day
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
5 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
171 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Newtownards’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Newtownards and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Newtownards hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Newtownards 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
14° 5°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light rain
11° 7°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 9°
models agree
Fri
Heavy drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
13° 8°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
11° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
12° 5°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
9° 4°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
9° 3°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
9° 2°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
9° 4°
±3°

Newtownards, Northern Ireland is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 3°C), with roughly 973 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Newtownards right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Newtownards climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
4°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
9°
4°
Apr
10°
5°
May
14°
8°
Jun
17°
10°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
9°
Nov
9°
5°
Dec
9°
5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Newtownards has changed since 1995

Newtownards sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Belfast. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Belfast page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Newtownards?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±0.9 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #2
92±0.4°C89±3.5 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C95±1.6 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°13° to 14°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°10° to 11°±32%35% to 67% chance
Mon±2°15° to 16°±9%91% to 100% chance
Tue±2°14° to 16°±55%45% to 100% chance
Wed±1°13° to 14°±43%24% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Newtownards

today, local time
Sunrise
08:09
Sunset
18:03
Daylight
9h 54m

Common questions

What's the weather in Newtownards today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Newtownards today. Tomorrow: light rain, around 11°, with a 67% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Newtownards today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Newtownards on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 67%, European 65%, American 35%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Newtownards?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Newtownards (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the Met Office at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Newtownards?
August is typically the warmest month in Newtownards, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Newtownards get?
The coldest month in Newtownards is February, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Newtownards get?
Newtownards sees roughly 973 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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