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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Belfast weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 20° in Belfast today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 16°, with a 85% chance of rain.

20°15°
16°11°
15°10°
17°10°
17°11°
16°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
20°
Heavy drizzle
Today 20°·Low 16°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 15°·Rain 74%
AmericanNOAA GFS
20°
Light drizzle
Today 20°·Low 14°·Rain 74%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Belfast and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
20° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
17°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
18° 12°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
18° 11°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
15°
±2°
Wed
Light drizzle
16°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
17°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
15°
±3°
Sat
Partly cloudy
15°
±3°

Belfast, Northern Ireland. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Belfast right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Belfast's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Belfast weather by month

what to expect in Belfast through the year

Here is Belfast's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Belfast by season.

Jan
Cold
Feb
Cool
Mar
Cool
Apr
11°
Cool
May
16°
Mild
Jun
18°
11°
Mild
Jul
17°
11°
Mild
Wettest
Aug
18°
12°
Mild
Sep
17°
10°
Mild
Oct
14°
Cool
Nov
10°
Cool
Dec
Cool

What Belfast's weather is like through the year

Belfast runs from warm summers, with June highs near 18°C, to cool winters, when January lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 15°C across the year). July is usually the wettest month, and Belfast sees roughly 1125 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Belfast

The most comfortable time to visit Belfast is usually May, June, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.

Which forecast is most accurate in Belfast?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
96
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.0 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
86
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C93±2.1 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
84
/100rank #3
83±0.9°C95±1.7 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Belfast, scoring 96/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 86. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°20° to 20°models agree74% to 74% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 17°±11%74% to 85% chance
Tue±1°15° to 15°±19%63% to 82% chance
Wed±1°16° to 17°±5%14% to 19% chance
Thu±1°17° to 18°±19%46% to 65% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Belfast

today, local time
Sunrise
06:40
Sunset
20:03
Daylight
13h 23m

Common questions

What's the weather in Belfast today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Belfast today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Belfast today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Belfast and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Belfast?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Belfast (CheckWeather Score 96/100), ahead of the Met Office at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Belfast?
June is typically the warmest month in Belfast, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Belfast get?
The coldest month in Belfast is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Belfast get?
Belfast sees roughly 1125 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Belfast?
The most comfortable time to visit Belfast is usually May, June, August and September, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest July rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Belfast?
Rarely - Belfast very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.

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