Chepstow weather
Loading live data…Rain,rain likely tomorrow
Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Chepstow today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 12°, with a 88% chance of rain.
Latest for Chepstow: Met Office (UKMO model): 12° Heavy drizzle · European (ECMWF): 11° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Light rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Chepstow weather warnings
Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for WalesChecking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…
Chepstow weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherChepstow swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1035 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 14 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 29 frost nights, and rain on 153 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Chepstow’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Chepstow and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Chepstow hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Chepstow 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitChepstow, Wales is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1035 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Chepstow right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
Chepstow climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How the weather around Chepstow has changed since 1995
Chepstow sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Bristol. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Bristol page.
Which forecast is most accurate in Chepstow?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.