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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Barry Island weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Barry Island today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 10°, with a 4% chance of rain.

11°7°
10°7°
10°7°
10°6°
10°6°
10°5°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agreeSaturdaymodels agreeSundaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
9°
Mainly clear
Feels 5° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 90%
EuropeanECMWF
8°
Overcast
Feels 4° · Wind 13 mph · Humidity 91%
AmericanNOAA GFS
9°
Overcast
Feels 4° · Wind 20 mph · Humidity 77%

Latest for Barry Island: Met Office (UKMO model): 9° Mainly clear · European (ECMWF): 8° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 9° Overcast.

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Barry Island weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Wales

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…

Barry Island weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Barry Island swings 17°C across the year, from 20°C highs in August to 3°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1152 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 7 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 15 frost nights, and rain on 168 days.

Warmest month
August
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
3°C average low
Wettest month
October
1152 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
55,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
92/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
7 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
15 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
168 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Barry Island’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Barry Island and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Barry Island hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Barry Island 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
11° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
10° 7°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
10° 7°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
10° 6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
10° 6°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 5°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
9° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° 5°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
8° 6°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
9° 6°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
10° 7°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
11° 5°
models agree

Barry Island, Wales is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1152 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Barry Island right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Barry Island climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
3°
Feb
8°
3°
Mar
9°
5°
Apr
12°
7°
May
16°
9°
Jun
18°
11°
Jul
19°
14°
Aug
20°
14°
Sep
18°
12°
Oct
14°
10°
Nov
11°
7°
Dec
8°
5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Barry Island has changed since 1995

Barry Island sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Cardiff. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Cardiff page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Barry Island?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C93±2.2 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
90
/100rank #2
94±0.3°C94±1.9 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
87
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C95±1.4 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°11° to 11°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°10° to 11°±4%0% to 4% chance
Thu±2°9° to 10°±27%6% to 33% chance
Fri±1°10° to 11°±15%0% to 15% chance
Sat±1°9° to 10°±19%14% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Barry Island

today, local time
Sunrise
07:09
Sunset
16:42
Daylight
9h 33m

Common questions

What's the weather in Barry Island today?
Tuesday 3 November: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Barry Island today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 10°, with a 4% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Barry Island today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Barry Island on Wednesday 4 November: no model gives more than 4% (Met Office 0%, European 0%, American 4%). On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Barry Island?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Barry Island (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the Met Office at 90. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Barry Island?
August is typically the warmest month in Barry Island, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Barry Island get?
The coldest month in Barry Island is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Barry Island get?
Barry Island sees roughly 1152 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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