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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Waiuku weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Waiuku today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 22% chance of rain.

18°9°
17°12°
18°12°
17°13°
16°12°
17°12°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 7°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 10°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
18°
Fog
Today 18°·Low 11°·Rain 0%
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Waiuku weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Waiuku swings 15°C across the year, from 22°C highs in January to 7°C lows in July, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1271 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
January
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1271 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
9,860
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Waiuku and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Waiuku hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Waiuku 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
18° 9°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 12°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Tue
Showers
17° 13°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
16° 13°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
17° 12°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
19° 15°
±4°
Tue
Rain
16° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree

Waiuku, New Zealand is at its warmest in Jan (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1271 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Waiuku right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Waiuku climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
16°
Feb
22°
16°
Mar
21°
15°
Apr
19°
14°
May
17°
11°
Jun
15°
9°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
7°
Sep
15°
9°
Oct
16°
10°
Nov
18°
11°
Dec
20°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Waiuku has changed since 1995

Waiuku sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Auckland. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Auckland page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Waiuku?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
98±0.1°C98±1.0 km/h8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C92±4.0 km/h5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
G
German
77
/100rank #3
92±0.4°C95±2.6 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°18° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree17° to 17°±19%3% to 22% chance
Mon±1°18° to 18°±27%2% to 29% chance
Tue±1°16° to 18°±5%94% to 99% chance
Wed±1°15° to 17°±11%29% to 40% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Waiuku

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Waiuku today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Waiuku today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 22% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Waiuku today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Waiuku on Sunday 25 October: European 22%, American 3%, German 5%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 2%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Waiuku?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Waiuku (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 77. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Waiuku?
January is typically the warmest month in Waiuku, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Waiuku get?
The coldest month in Waiuku is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Waiuku get?
Waiuku sees roughly 1271 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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