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Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Tuakau weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Tuakau's high today between 18° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 29% chance of rain.

20°9°
18°10°
20°10°
17°11°
17°9°
18°10°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Cloudy
Today 18°·Low 9°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Cloudy
Today 22°·Low 8°·Rain 0%
GermanDWD ICON
20°
Fog
Today 20°·Low 9°·Rain 0%
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Tuakau weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Tuakau swings 16°C across the year, from 23°C highs in February to 7°C lows in June, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1169 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
23°C average high
Coldest month
June
7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1169 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
6,180
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Tuakau and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Tuakau hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Tuakau 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
20° 9°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
20° 10°
models agree
Tue
Showers
17° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 9°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
19° 8°
models agree
Mon
Heavy drizzle
18° 15°
±4°
Tue
Rain
17° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 10°
models agree
Thu
Partly cloudy
19° 9°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 9°
models agree

Tuakau, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Jun (lows around 7°C), with roughly 1169 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Tuakau right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Tuakau climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
22°
15°
Feb
23°
15°
Mar
21°
14°
Apr
19°
13°
May
17°
10°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
14°
7°
Sep
15°
8°
Oct
16°
9°
Nov
18°
11°
Dec
21°
14°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Tuakau has changed since 1995

Tuakau sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Huntly. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Huntly page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Tuakau?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
98±0.1°C96±1.8 km/h7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
74
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C96±2.0 km/h4771% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
68
/100rank #3
79±1.1°C80±9.8 km/h4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°18° to 22°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±29%0% to 29% chance
Mon±2°19° to 21°±22%0% to 22% chance
Tue±2°17° to 18°±5%95% to 100% chance
Wed±2°16° to 18°±11%30% to 41% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Tuakau

today, local time
Sunrise
06:24
Sunset
19:45
Daylight
13h 21m

Common questions

What's the weather in Tuakau today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Tuakau's high today between 18° and 22°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 18°, with a 29% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Tuakau today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Tuakau on Sunday 25 October: European 29%, American 0%, German 3%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tuakau?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Tuakau (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the German at 74. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tuakau?
February is typically the warmest month in Tuakau, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Tuakau get?
The coldest month in Tuakau is June, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Tuakau get?
Tuakau sees roughly 1169 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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