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CheckWeather NZ›Kelvin Grove
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Kelvin Grove weather

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Cloudy,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Kelvin Grove's high today between 17° and 20°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 53% chance of rain.

18°9°
17°11°
19°10°
17°10°
16°9°
16°11°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±2°Thursdaymodels agree
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Mainly clear
Feels 8° · Wind 26 km/h · Humidity 89%
AmericanNOAA GFS
13°
Overcast
Feels 10° · Wind 20 km/h · Humidity 81%
GermanDWD ICON
12°
Overcast
Feels 9° · Wind 22 km/h · Humidity 85%

Latest for Kelvin Grove: European (ECMWF): 12° Mainly clear · American (NOAA GFS): 13° Overcast · German (DWD ICON): 12° Overcast.

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Kelvin Grove weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Kelvin Grove swings 18°C across the year, from 22°C highs in February to 4°C lows in July, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1096 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
22°C average high
Coldest month
July
4°C average low
Wettest month
June
1096 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
8,170
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Kelvin Grove and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kelvin Grove hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Kelvin Grove 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
18° 9°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 11°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
17° 10°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
16° 9°
±2°
Thu
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
19° 9°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
19° 9°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
19° 12°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
16° 11°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 10°
±6°
Thu
Partly cloudy
17° 7°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
20° 6°
±4°

Kelvin Grove, New Zealand is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1096 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Kelvin Grove right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand before you trust any single number.

Kelvin Grove climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
21°
13°
Feb
22°
14°
Mar
20°
11°
Apr
18°
10°
May
15°
7°
Jun
12°
6°
Jul
11°
4°
Aug
12°
5°
Sep
14°
6°
Oct
16°
8°
Nov
17°
10°
Dec
20°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Kelvin Grove has changed since 1995

Kelvin Grove sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Palmerston North. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Palmerston North page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Kelvin Grove?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C97±1.6 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
83
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C95±2.3 km/h7184% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C86±6.8 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 244 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in New Zealand, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in New Zealand? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°17° to 20°±47%0% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±2°16° to 18°±53%0% to 53% chance
Mon±1°19° to 20°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±34%64% to 98% chance
Wed±2°15° to 17°±19%18% to 37% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kelvin Grove

today, local time
Sunrise
06:16
Sunset
19:46
Daylight
13h 30m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kelvin Grove today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Kelvin Grove's high today between 17° and 20°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 53% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kelvin Grove today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kelvin Grove on Sunday 25 October: European 53%, American 0%, German 0%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 47%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kelvin Grove?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kelvin Grove (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the German at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the NZ accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kelvin Grove?
February is typically the warmest month in Kelvin Grove, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Kelvin Grove get?
The coldest month in Kelvin Grove is July, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Kelvin Grove get?
Kelvin Grove sees roughly 1096 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.

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