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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Tillicum weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Tillicum today. Tomorrow: rain, around 12°, with a 97% chance of rain.

11°5°
12°8°
14°7°
13°7°
10°6°
8°5°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±2°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
5°
Partly cloudy
Feels 3° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 85%
EuropeanECMWF
7°
Overcast
Feels 6° · Wind 1 km/h · Humidity 84%
AmericanNOAA GFS
4°
Overcast
Feels 2° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 90%

Latest for Tillicum: Env. Canada (GEM model): 5° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 7° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 4° Overcast.

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Tillicum weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Tillicum swings 23°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to 2°C lows in February, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 963 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
February
2°C average low
Wettest month
November
963 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Tillicum and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Tillicum hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Tillicum 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
12° 8°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
14° 7°
models agree
Tue
Showers
13° 7°
models agree
Wed
Showers
10° 6°
±3°
Thu
Heavy drizzle
8° 5°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
9° 3°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
9° 3°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
13° 4°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
10° 6°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
13° 8°
±4°

Tillicum, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around 2°C), with roughly 963 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Tillicum right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Tillicum climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
3°
Feb
7°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
13°
6°
May
18°
9°
Jun
21°
12°
Jul
25°
14°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
13°
7°
Nov
9°
5°
Dec
6°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Tillicum has changed since 1995

Tillicum sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Victoria. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Victoria page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Tillicum?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
82±1.0°C95±2.3 km/h8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
88
/100rank #2
79±1.2°C92±3.8 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
88
/100rank #3
74±1.4°C94±3.0 km/h100100% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°11° to 13°±60%38% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±2°10° to 13°±43%54% to 97% chance
Mon±1°14° to 14°±42%17% to 59% chance
Tue±2°12° to 14°±20%13% to 33% chance
Wed±3°9° to 11°±30%40% to 70% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Tillicum

today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
18:07
Daylight
10h 20m

Common questions

What's the weather in Tillicum today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Tillicum today. Tomorrow: rain, around 12°, with a 97% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Tillicum today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Tillicum on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 54% (Env. Canada 82%, European 97%, American 54%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 98%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Tillicum?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Tillicum (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the European at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Tillicum?
July is typically the warmest month in Tillicum, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Tillicum get?
The coldest month in Tillicum is February, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Tillicum get?
Tillicum sees roughly 963 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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