Victoria weather
Loading live data…Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Victoria today. Tomorrow: rain, around 12°, with a 97% chance of rain.
Latest for Victoria: Env. Canada (GEM model): 5° Clear · European (ECMWF): 8° Overcast · American (NOAA GFS): 5° Overcast.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Victoria weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherVictoria swings 22°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to 3°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 933 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 29 days a year at 25°C or above, 2 of them at 30°C or above, 16 frost nights, and rain on 138 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Victoria’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Victoria and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Victoria hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Victoria 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitVictoria, British Columbia. Below we compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Victoria right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Victoria's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.
Victoria weather by month
what to expect in Victoria through the year, 1991-2020 averagesHere is Victoria's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Victoria by season.
What Victoria's weather is like through the year
Victoria runs from warm summers, with July highs near 25°C, to cold winters, when January lows sit around 3°C (a swing of about 22°C across the year). November is usually the wettest month, and Victoria sees roughly 933 mm of precipitation annually.
Best time to visit Victoria
The most comfortable time to visit Victoria is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest November rain is behind you.
How Victoria's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Victoria, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
Days above 25°C
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >25°C vs avg | Frost nights vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | +0.4°C | −2 | +4 | +4% |
| 1996 | −0.6°C | +2 | +13 | +4% |
| 1997 | +0.4°C | −2 | −1 | +4% |
| 1998 | +0.6°C | +2 | +2 | +4% |
| 1999 | −0.4°C | −9 | −6 | +4% |
| 2000 | −0.4°C | −8 | −5 | −2% |
| 2001 | −0.4°C | −4 | −8 | +1% |
| 2002 | −0.2°C | −3 | −2 | −2% |
| 2003 | +0.4°C | +1 | −6 | +1% |
| 2004 | +0.6°C | +11 | −4 | −9% |
| 2005 | +0.3°C | −2 | +1 | −5% |
| 2006 | +0.1°C | −1 | −2 | +7% |
| 2007 | −0.4°C | −7 | −2 | −2% |
| 2008 | −1.0°C | −3 | +3 | −5% |
| 2009 | −0.4°C | +11 | +4 | −5% |
| 2010 | −0.2°C | −1 | −1 | +4% |
| 2011 | −1.0°C | −8 | +3 | −2% |
| 2012 | −0.5°C | −3 | −3 | +1% |
| 2013 | −0.3°C | −4 | −0 | −12% |
| 2014 | +0.4°C | +8 | +4 | +1% |
| 2015 | +1.1°C | +9 | −7 | −5% |
| 2016 | +0.7°C | +3 | +1 | +7% |
| 2017 | −0.3°C | +5 | +8 | +4% |
| 2018 | +0.4°C | +6 | −2 | −2% |
| 2019 | ±0.0°C | −5 | +2 | −5% |
| 2020 | +0.1°C | −4 | −4 | +1% |
| 2021 | ±0.0°C | +3 | +7 | +7% |
| 2022 | −0.2°C | +7 | +7 | −5% |
| 2023 | +0.3°C | −2 | −3 | +4% |
| 2024 | −0.4°C | −2 | −2 | +4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Victoria, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Victoria?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
Bottom line: over the last 30 days the American model has been the most accurate forecast for Victoria, scoring 92/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Env. Canada at 90. See the full CA accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.