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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CAThorold
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Thorold weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 23° in Thorold today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 23°, with a 4% chance of rain.

23°15°
23°12°
25°13°
24°18°
24°16°
21°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
24°
Cloudy
Today 24°·Low 15°·Rain 5%
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Light drizzle
Today 22°·Low 15°·Rain 41%
AmericanNOAA GFS
22°
Mostly clear
Today 22°·Low 15°·Rain 0%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Thorold and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
23° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
23° 12°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
25° 13°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
24° 18°
±5°
Thu
Light drizzle
24° 16°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 13°
±4°
Sat
Showers
25° 14°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
25° 16°
±11°
Mon
Cloudy
20° 13°
±8°
Tue
Clear
20° 15°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19° 12°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 12°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
20° 12°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
22° 14°
models agree

Thorold, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -4°C), with roughly 1068 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Thorold right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Thorold climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-3°
Feb
-4°
Mar
-1°
Apr
15°
May
20°
10°
Jun
24°
16°
Jul
27°
18°
Aug
25°
17°
Sep
24°
15°
Oct
17°
Nov
Dec
-1°

Which forecast is most accurate in Thorold?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C97±1.7 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
83
/100rank #2
89±0.6°C98±1.2 km/t6581% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
88±0.6°C95±2.5 km/t4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°22° to 24°±41%0% to 41% chance
Tomorrow±1°23° to 24°±4%0% to 4% chance
Tue±1°24° to 25°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±5°21° to 26°±25%42% to 67% chance
Thu±1°24° to 24°±40%19% to 59% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Thorold

today, local time
Sunrise
06:46
Sunset
19:43
Daylight
12h 57m

Common questions

What's the weather in Thorold today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Thorold today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Thorold today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Thorold and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Thorold?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Thorold (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the European at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Thorold?
July is typically the warmest month in Thorold, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Thorold get?
The coldest month in Thorold is February, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Thorold get?
Thorold sees roughly 1068 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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