Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 2°C
Thompson weather
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Snow showers,rain likely tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Thompson's high today between 11° and 13°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: snow, around 0°, with a 92% chance of rain.
Thompson swings 48°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to -24°C lows in January, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 600 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
January
-24°C average low
Wettest month
July
600 mm a year
Below freezing
7 months
January, February, March, April, October, November and December
Comfortable
2 months
June and August
Residents
14,000
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The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Thompson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Thompson hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Thompson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Snow showers
12°0°
±2°
Tomorrow
Snow
0°-4°
±3°
Mon
Partly cloudy
0°-5°
models agree
Tue
Mostly clear
5°-4°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
3°-2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
0°-4°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
1°-3°
±4°
Sat
Snow
2°-3°
±10°
Sun
Snow
2°-2°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
1°-4°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
1°-4°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
3°-2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
3°-4°
±3°
Thompson, Manitoba is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -24°C), with roughly 600 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Thompson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-18°
-24°
Feb
-14°
-23°
Mar
-6°
-16°
Apr
5°
-6°
May
13°
1°
Jun
19°
8°
Jul
24°
14°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
15°
6°
Oct
5°
-1°
Nov
-7°
-13°
Dec
-15°
-23°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Thompson's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
−0.1°C
Around Thompson, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is −0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
6 fewer days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
1 fewer night a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
no clear change
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.3°C
+7
−4
−5%
1996
−1.6°C
+10
+11
−1%
1997
−0.7°C
+6
+8
−1%
1998
+1.5°C
+2
−9
−5%
1999
+1.7°C
+2
−5
+4%
2000
−0.1°C
−9
−4
−1%
2001
+1.7°C
−2
−14
−1%
2002
−0.7°C
+11
+19
+4%
2003
+0.7°C
+22
−6
+4%
2004
−1.6°C
−2
+13
−1%
2005
+0.6°C
−3
−2
+4%
2006
+1.4°C
−8
−16
−1%
2007
−0.6°C
−5
−10
−1%
2008
−1.1°C
−1
+4
−1%
2009
−0.7°C
−15
+19
−1%
2010
+1.7°C
−6
−17
−1%
2011
+0.4°C
−5
−5
+4%
2012
+0.5°C
+4
+5
−1%
2013
−1.3°C
+9
−3
−1%
2014
−1.4°C
+6
+3
+4%
2015
+0.6°C
+1
−2
−1%
2016
+0.7°C
−2
−8
−1%
2017
−0.3°C
−9
+0
+4%
2018
−1.3°C
+6
+20
−1%
2019
−1.0°C
−10
+8
−1%
2020
−0.8°C
−2
+11
−1%
2021
+0.2°C
−1
−4
−1%
2022
−1.3°C
−2
−2
+4%
2023
+1.4°C
−1
−18
−5%
2024
+1.5°C
+5
−6
−1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Thompson, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Thompson?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
98±0.1°C
98±0.8 km/h
9597% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
92
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C
96±2.1 km/h
9597% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
83
/100rank #3
85±0.9°C
96±1.9 km/h
7184% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°11° to 13°
±6%94% to 100% chance
Tomorrow
±3°-1° to 2°
±47%45% to 92% chance
Mon
±1°0° to 1°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue
±1°5° to 6°
±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed
±2°2° to 4°
±36%16% to 52% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Thompson
today, local time
Sunrise
08:21
Sunset
18:08
Daylight
9h 47m
Common questions
What's the weather in Thompson today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Thompson's high today between 11° and 13°, a 2° split. Tomorrow: snow, around 0°, with a 92% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Thompson today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Thompson on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 92%, European 81%, American 45%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Thompson?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Thompson (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 92. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Thompson?
July is typically the warmest month in Thompson, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Thompson get?
The coldest month in Thompson is January, when overnight lows average about -24°C.
How much rain does Thompson get?
Thompson sees roughly 600 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.
Is Thompson getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Thompson, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is -0.1°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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