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CheckWeather CA›Qualicum Beach
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Qualicum Beach weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Qualicum Beach's high today between 8° and 10°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain.

9°6°
11°7°
13°7°
11°6°
8°5°
7°2°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
5°
Partly cloudy
Feels 4° · Wind 1 km/h · Humidity 87%
EuropeanECMWF
8°
Light drizzle
Feels 6° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 91%
AmericanNOAA GFS
5°
Overcast
Feels 2° · Wind 5 km/h · Humidity 75%

Latest for Qualicum Beach: Env. Canada (GEM model): 5° Partly cloudy · European (ECMWF): 8° Light drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 5° Overcast.

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Qualicum Beach weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Qualicum Beach swings 20°C across the year, from 22°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1434 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
22°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
November
1434 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
9,303
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Qualicum Beach and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Qualicum Beach hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Qualicum Beach 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
9° 6°
±3°
Tomorrow
Light rain
11° 7°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
13° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
11° 6°
±2°
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 5°
±4°
Thu
Partly cloudy
7° 2°
models agree
Fri
Clear
8° 1°
models agree
Sat
Partly cloudy
8° 1°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
9° 4°
±3°
Mon
Light rain
11° 6°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
9° 7°
models agree
Thu
Rain
12° 8°
±4°

Qualicum Beach, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 22°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1434 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Qualicum Beach right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Qualicum Beach climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
6°
2°
Feb
7°
2°
Mar
9°
2°
Apr
12°
5°
May
17°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
22°
12°
Aug
22°
14°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
13°
7°
Nov
9°
4°
Dec
6°
2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Qualicum Beach has changed since 1995

Qualicum Beach sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Parksville. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Parksville page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Qualicum Beach?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
85±0.8°C92±4.1 km/h8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
84
/100rank #2
73±1.5°C95±2.4 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
81
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C95±2.6 km/h6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°8° to 10°±16%84% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±2°10° to 12°±21%79% to 100% chance
Mon±1°12° to 13°±32%24% to 56% chance
Tue±2°10° to 13°±37%24% to 61% chance
Wed±4°6° to 10°±44%29% to 73% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Qualicum Beach

today, local time
Sunrise
07:53
Sunset
18:09
Daylight
10h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Qualicum Beach today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Qualicum Beach's high today between 8° and 10°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: light rain, around 11°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Qualicum Beach today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Qualicum Beach on Sunday, October 25: every model gives at least 79% (Env. Canada 100%, European 99%, American 79%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Qualicum Beach?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Qualicum Beach (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the European at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Qualicum Beach?
July is typically the warmest month in Qualicum Beach, with average highs around 22°C.
How cold does Qualicum Beach get?
The coldest month in Qualicum Beach is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Qualicum Beach get?
Qualicum Beach sees roughly 1434 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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