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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CANanaimo
Forecast confidence: Low · models disagree by 5°C

Nanaimo weather

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Light drizzle,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Nanaimo's high today between 18° and 23°, a 5° split. Tomorrow looks clear around 22°, with a 2% chance of rain.

21°13°
22°13°
19°13°
21°12°
22°14°
20°14°
Todaysplit ±5°Tomorrowsplit ±4°Mondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaysplit ±4°Wednesdaysplit ±5°Thursdaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
21°
Light drizzle
Today 21°·Low 14°·Rain 14%
EuropeanECMWF
18°
Light drizzle
Today 18°·Low 13°·Rain 47%
AmericanNOAA GFS
23°
Cloudy
Today 23°·Low 13°·Rain 15%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Nanaimo and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
21° 13°
±5°
Tomorrow
Clear
22° 13°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
19° 13°
±4°
Tue
Cloudy
21° 12°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
22° 14°
±5°
Thu
Partly cloudy
20° 14°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
20° 13°
±4°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
21° 14°
±6°
Sun
Clear
22° 14°
±3°
Mon
Cloudy
23° 15°
±5°
Tue
Cloudy
22° 15°
±6°
Wed
Cloudy
19° 12°
±3°
Thu
Partly cloudy
18° 13°
models agree
Fri
Partly cloudy
18° 10°
models agree

Nanaimo, British Columbia is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1412 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Nanaimo right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Nanaimo climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
18°
10°
Jun
19°
11°
Jul
24°
15°
Aug
23°
15°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Nanaimo?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
86
/100rank #1
69±1.7°C93±3.4 km/t100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
83
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C97±1.5 km/t7184% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
69
/100rank #3
43±3.1°C93±3.4 km/t8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±5°18° to 23°±33%14% to 47% chance
Tomorrow±4°20° to 24°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±4°18° to 21°±15%16% to 31% chance
Tue±4°19° to 22°±10%0% to 10% chance
Wed±5°19° to 24°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Nanaimo

today, local time
Sunrise
06:38
Sunset
19:50
Daylight
13h 12m

Common questions

What's the weather in Nanaimo today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Nanaimo today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Nanaimo today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Nanaimo and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Nanaimo?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Nanaimo (CheckWeather Score 86/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Nanaimo?
July is typically the warmest month in Nanaimo, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Nanaimo get?
The coldest month in Nanaimo is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Nanaimo get?
Nanaimo sees roughly 1412 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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