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CheckWeather CA›Penetanguishene
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Penetanguishene weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Penetanguishene today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain.

14°3°
17°5°
13°5°
8°2°
12°3°
16°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaysplit ±5°
Env. CanadaGEM model
2°
Clear
Feels -1° · Wind 8 km/h · Humidity 99%
EuropeanECMWF
6°
Clear
Feels 4° · Wind 9 km/h · Humidity 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
4°
Clear
Feels 1° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 89%

Latest for Penetanguishene: Env. Canada (GEM model): 2° Clear · European (ECMWF): 6° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 4° Clear.

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Penetanguishene weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Penetanguishene swings 34°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -11°C lows in February, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1042 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
February
-11°C average low
Wettest month
December
1042 mm a year
Below freezing
5 months
January, February, March, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
10,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Penetanguishene and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Penetanguishene hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Penetanguishene 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
14° 3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
17° 5°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
13° 5°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
8° 2°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
12° 3°
±4°
Thu
Light drizzle
16° 7°
±5°
Fri
Clear
13° 8°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
17° 7°
±4°
Sun
Showers
16° 9°
±4°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
9° 3°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
6° 3°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
8° 4°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
8° 3°
models agree

Penetanguishene, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -11°C), with roughly 1042 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Penetanguishene right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Penetanguishene climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-4°
-9°
Feb
-2°
-11°
Mar
3°
-5°
Apr
10°
1°
May
16°
6°
Jun
21°
13°
Jul
23°
15°
Aug
22°
15°
Sep
19°
11°
Oct
12°
6°
Nov
5°
-1°
Dec
0°
-5°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Penetanguishene has changed since 1995

Penetanguishene sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Midland. That square ran 1.6°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Midland page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Penetanguishene?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
EC
Env. Canada ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C95±2.5 km/h8994% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
European logo
European
86
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C93±3.7 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
77
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C93±3.6 km/h5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°14° to 15°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±2°16° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±2°12° to 14°±31%0% to 31% chance
Tue±2°7° to 9°±6%0% to 6% chance
Wed±4°10° to 14°±10%4% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Penetanguishene

today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
18:19
Daylight
10h 32m

Common questions

What's the weather in Penetanguishene today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Penetanguishene today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 17°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Penetanguishene today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Penetanguishene on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (Env. Canada 0%, European 2%, American 1%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Penetanguishene?
Over the last 30 days, the Env. Canada model has been the most accurate for Penetanguishene (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 86. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Penetanguishene?
July is typically the warmest month in Penetanguishene, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Penetanguishene get?
The coldest month in Penetanguishene is February, when overnight lows average about -11°C.
How much rain does Penetanguishene get?
Penetanguishene sees roughly 1042 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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