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CheckWeather CAPenetanguishene
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Penetanguishene weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Penetanguishene's high today between 21° and 24°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks mostly clear around 22°, with a 17% chance of rain.

22°14°
22°14°
23°15°
22°17°
20°16°
20°13°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±2°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±5°Fridaysplit ±8°
Env. CanadaGEM model
24°
Clear
Today 24°·Low 13°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
21°
Mostly clear
Today 21°·Low 16°·Rain 20%
AmericanNOAA GFS
21°
Cloudy
Today 21°·Low 14°·Rain 1%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Penetanguishene and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
22° 14°
±3°
Tomorrow
Mostly clear
22° 14°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
23° 15°
models agree
Wed
Showers
22° 17°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
20° 16°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
20° 13°
±8°
Sat
Heavy drizzle
24° 15°
±10°
Sun
Light drizzle
21° 15°
±9°
Mon
Clear
16° 12°
±4°
Tue
Mostly clear
17° 13°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 13°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
18° 12°
±2°

Penetanguishene, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1065 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Penetanguishene right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Penetanguishene climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-5°
Feb
-7°
Mar
-3°
Apr
12°
May
18°
Jun
23°
15°
Jul
25°
17°
Aug
23°
16°
Sep
22°
14°
Oct
15°
Nov
Dec
-3°

Which forecast is most accurate in Penetanguishene?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
83
/100rank #1
85±0.8°C95±2.6 km/t7184% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
81
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C95±2.7 km/t6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
80
/100rank #3
84±0.9°C94±2.8 km/t6581% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°21° to 24°±20%0% to 20% chance
Tomorrow±2°21° to 24°±17%0% to 17% chance
Tue±2°22° to 24°±10%6% to 16% chance
Wed±1°22° to 22°±12%73% to 85% chance
Thu±5°19° to 24°±4%28% to 32% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Penetanguishene

today, local time
Sunrise
06:48
Sunset
19:47
Daylight
12h 59m

Common questions

What's the weather in Penetanguishene today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Penetanguishene today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Penetanguishene today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Penetanguishene and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Penetanguishene?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Penetanguishene (CheckWeather Score 83/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Penetanguishene?
July is typically the warmest month in Penetanguishene, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Penetanguishene get?
The coldest month in Penetanguishene is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Penetanguishene get?
Penetanguishene sees roughly 1065 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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