Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 3°C
Collingwood weather
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Clear,much the same tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Collingwood's high today between 15° and 18°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 2% chance of rain.
Collingwood swings 33°C across the year, from 23°C highs in July to -10°C lows in February, and November is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 944 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 40 days a year at 25°C or above, 4 of them at 30°C or above, 132 frost nights, and rain on 166 days.
Warmest month
July
23°C average high
Coldest month
February
-10°C average low
Wettest month
November
944 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
22,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
91/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
40 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
132 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
166 days
a year with 1 mm or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Collingwood’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Collingwood and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Collingwood hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Collingwood 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
16°3°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
19°6°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
14°7°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
9°2°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
13°4°
±5°
Thu
Cloudy
18°9°
±3°
Fri
Clear
14°8°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
19°8°
±6°
Sun
Drizzle
18°11°
±3°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
16°7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
9°3°
models agree
Wed
Heavy drizzle
6°2°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
9°4°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
10°2°
models agree
Collingwood, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 23°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -10°C), with roughly 944 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Collingwood right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-3°
-8°
Feb
-2°
-10°
Mar
2°
-5°
Apr
10°
1°
May
16°
8°
Jun
21°
13°
Jul
23°
16°
Aug
23°
16°
Sep
19°
12°
Oct
12°
6°
Nov
6°
1°
Dec
0°
-5°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Collingwood's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.2°C
Around Collingwood, 2015-2024 averaged 1.2°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
6 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
10 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
+1%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.6°C
+4
+12
+3%
1996
−2.2°C
−7
+31
−4%
1997
−1.5°C
−7
+19
+0%
1998
+1.5°C
−1
−21
−2%
1999
+0.3°C
−2
−3
+3%
2000
−0.6°C
−7
−7
+0%
2001
−0.1°C
−0
−1
−4%
2002
−0.2°C
+6
+23
+3%
2003
−1.8°C
−6
+12
−4%
2004
−0.8°C
−7
−7
+0%
2005
+0.5°C
+9
−1
−2%
2006
+0.5°C
−1
−11
+0%
2007
±0.0°C
−2
−3
+3%
2008
−0.5°C
−6
+6
+3%
2009
−0.7°C
−6
−2
−2%
2010
+0.6°C
+2
−10
+0%
2011
+0.1°C
+3
−2
−4%
2012
+1.5°C
+13
−12
+0%
2013
−0.3°C
−0
+7
+3%
2014
−1.6°C
−5
+9
+0%
2015
−0.3°C
−0
−11
+0%
2016
+1.0°C
+10
−3
+0%
2017
+0.4°C
−2
−10
+3%
2018
+0.1°C
+7
+17
+0%
2019
−0.8°C
−1
+8
+5%
2020
+1.0°C
+13
+4
+3%
2021
+1.3°C
+4
−11
−2%
2022
+0.2°C
+1
−3
+3%
2023
+1.2°C
−3
−9
−4%
2024
+2.1°C
+1
−22
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Collingwood, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Collingwood?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
89±0.6°C
98±1.0 km/h
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
76
/100rank #2
73±1.5°C
89±5.3 km/h
7184% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
74
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C
96±2.2 km/h
5374% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±3°15° to 18°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±2°18° to 20°
±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon
±3°13° to 16°
±12%0% to 12% chance
Tue
±1°8° to 10°
±5%0% to 5% chance
Wed
±5°11° to 16°
±9%5% to 14% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Collingwood
today, local time
Sunrise
07:47
Sunset
18:21
Daylight
10h 34m
Common questions
What's the weather in Collingwood today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Collingwood's high today between 15° and 18°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 19°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Collingwood today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Collingwood on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (Env. Canada 0%, European 2%, American 1%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Collingwood?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Collingwood (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 76. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Collingwood?
July is typically the warmest month in Collingwood, with average highs around 23°C.
How cold does Collingwood get?
The coldest month in Collingwood is February, when overnight lows average about -10°C.
How much rain does Collingwood get?
Collingwood sees roughly 944 mm of precipitation a year, with November usually the wettest month.
Is Collingwood getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Collingwood, 2015-2024 averaged 1.2°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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