Forecast confidence: Medium· models disagree by 4°C
Kelowna (K-town) weather
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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Kelowna's high today between 9° and 13°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 12°, with a 86% chance of rain.
Kelowna swings 35°C across the year, from 31°C highs in July to -4°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 417 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 87 days a year at 25°C or above, 44 of them at 30°C or above, 95 frost nights, and rain on 105 days.
Warmest month
July
31°C average high
Coldest month
January
-4°C average low
Wettest month
June
417 mm a year
Comfortable
2 months
May and September
Residents
145,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
97/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
87 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
95 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
105 days
a year with 1 mm or more
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Kelowna’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Kelowna and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Kelowna hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Kelowna 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
11°5°
±4°
Tomorrow
Drizzle
12°5°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
13°4°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
11°4°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
7°3°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
7°2°
±5°
Fri
Mostly clear
7°0°
±6°
Sat
Cloudy
6°-1°
±5°
Sun
Cloudy
8°-1°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
10°2°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
12°2°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
9°3°
±3°
Thu
Light drizzle
11°5°
±6°
Kelowna, British Columbia (often shortened to K-town) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 31°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 417 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Kelowna right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
2°
-4°
Feb
6°
-2°
Mar
11°
0°
Apr
15°
3°
May
21°
7°
Jun
24°
11°
Jul
31°
15°
Aug
29°
16°
Sep
23°
12°
Oct
14°
6°
Nov
7°
2°
Dec
1°
-3°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Kelowna's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.4°C
Around Kelowna, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is +0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 30°C
2 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
11 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
−2%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >30°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.3°C
−11
+5
−2%
1996
−1.9°C
−2
+13
−2%
1997
−0.1°C
−9
+2
+3%
1998
+1.2°C
+7
−7
−2%
1999
±0.0°C
−7
+25
+8%
2000
−1.0°C
−7
+13
−2%
2001
−0.3°C
−1
+14
+3%
2002
±0.0°C
+3
+7
+3%
2003
+0.7°C
+6
−8
+3%
2004
+0.8°C
+12
−15
−2%
2005
+0.1°C
−7
−14
−2%
2006
+0.6°C
+5
+3
+3%
2007
−0.2°C
+0
+2
+3%
2008
−0.7°C
+2
+10
+3%
2009
−0.6°C
+6
+20
−2%
2010
−0.3°C
−5
+3
−2%
2011
−0.8°C
−8
+10
+3%
2012
+0.3°C
+1
−2
+3%
2013
+0.1°C
−4
+2
−2%
2014
+0.2°C
+2
−15
−2%
2015
+1.3°C
+1
−12
−2%
2016
+0.6°C
−10
−30
−2%
2017
−0.6°C
+3
+8
−2%
2018
±0.0°C
−3
−5
−2%
2019
−0.4°C
−7
+5
−8%
2020
−0.1°C
−3
−2
+3%
2021
+0.4°C
+13
−8
+3%
2022
+0.2°C
+7
−1
+3%
2023
+1.1°C
+0
−15
−2%
2024
+0.3°C
+11
+3
−2%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Kelowna, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Kelowna?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
97
/100rank #1
94±0.3°C
98±1.2 km/h
100100% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American
81
/100rank #2
82±1.0°C
88±6.1 km/h
7687% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
79
/100rank #3
76±1.4°C
94±3.2 km/h
7184% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±4°9° to 13°
±59%17% to 76% chance
Tomorrow
±4°11° to 14°
±58%28% to 86% chance
Mon
±1°12° to 13°
±10%14% to 24% chance
Tue
±2°10° to 13°
±10%27% to 37% chance
Wed
±3°6° to 9°
±16%48% to 64% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Kelowna
today, local time
Sunrise
07:34
Sunset
17:48
Daylight
10h 14m
Common questions
What's the weather in Kelowna today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Kelowna's high today between 9° and 13°, a 4° split. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 12°, with a 86% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Kelowna today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Kelowna on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 86%, European 75%, American 28%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 76%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kelowna?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kelowna (CheckWeather Score 97/100), ahead of the American at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kelowna?
July is typically the warmest month in Kelowna, with average highs around 31°C.
How cold does Kelowna get?
The coldest month in Kelowna is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Kelowna get?
Kelowna sees roughly 417 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Kelowna getting warmer?
Not clearly. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Kelowna, the difference between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024 is 0.4°C, within the normal swing from year to year.
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