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Every Canadian forecast, compared
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CheckWeather CAEssex
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Essex weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model put Essex's high today between 24° and 26°, a 3° split. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 25°, with a 17% chance of rain.

25°16°
25°15°
26°15°
28°21°
26°18°
24°14°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±5°Fridaysplit ±4°
Env. CanadaGEM model
26°
Clear
Today 26°·Low 16°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
24°
Light drizzle
Today 24°·Low 18°·Rain 22%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Cloudy
Today 25°·Low 15°·Rain 1%

The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Essex and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
25° 16°
±3°
Tomorrow
Cloudy
25° 15°
±3°
Tue
Cloudy
26° 15°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
28° 21°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
26° 18°
±5°
Fri
Partly cloudy
24° 14°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
27° 19°
±3°
Sun
Cloudy
26° 17°
±9°
Mon
Mostly clear
22° 13°
±12°
Tue
Clear
20° 13°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
20° 12°
models agree
Thu
Clear
21° 13°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
23° 13°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
23° 16°
models agree

Essex, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 27°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -4°C), with roughly 967 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Essex right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Essex climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
-4°
Feb
-3°
Mar
-1°
Apr
15°
May
21°
10°
Jun
26°
16°
Jul
27°
18°
Aug
26°
17°
Sep
24°
15°
Oct
17°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Essex?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
91±0.5°C96±1.8 km/t7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
66
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C93±3.6 km/t3665% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
64
/100rank #3
85±0.9°C94±2.9 km/t1855% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1302 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°24° to 26°±22%0% to 22% chance
Tomorrow±3°23° to 26°±17%0% to 17% chance
Tuemodels agree26° to 26°±2%0% to 2% chance
Wed±3°26° to 29°±30%12% to 42% chance
Thu±5°24° to 29°±6%8% to 14% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Essex

today, local time
Sunrise
07:02
Sunset
19:56
Daylight
12h 54m

Common questions

What's the weather in Essex today?
On this page we show what Env. Canada, European, American each forecast for Essex today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Essex today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Env. Canada, European, American for Essex and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Essex?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Essex (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 66. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Essex?
July is typically the warmest month in Essex, with average highs around 27°C.
How cold does Essex get?
The coldest month in Essex is January, when overnight lows average about -4°C.
How much rain does Essex get?
Essex sees roughly 967 mm of precipitation a year, with April usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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