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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Dunnville weather

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Clear,much the same tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Dunnville today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 2% chance of rain.

16°3°
16°7°
18°9°
11°5°
15°4°
18°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaysplit ±2°Wednesdaysplit ±4°Thursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
6°
Clear
Feels 3° · Wind 3 km/h · Humidity 80%
EuropeanECMWF
5°
Clear
Feels 2° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 89%
AmericanNOAA GFS
1°
Mainly clear
Feels -2° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 90%

Latest for Dunnville: Env. Canada (GEM model): 6° Clear · European (ECMWF): 5° Clear · American (NOAA GFS): 1° Mainly clear.

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Dunnville weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Dunnville swings 31°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to -7°C lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1034 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
February
-7°C average low
Wettest month
July
1034 mm a year
Below freezing
4 months
January, February, March and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, August and September
Residents
5,907
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Dunnville and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Dunnville hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Dunnville 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
16° 3°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 7°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
18° 9°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
11° 5°
±2°
Wed
Cloudy
15° 4°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
18° 10°
models agree
Fri
Clear
17° 8°
±4°
Sat
Cloudy
18° 9°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±3°
Mon
Light rain
16° 8°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
12° 3°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 1°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12° 4°
±5°
Fri
Cloudy
12° 3°
±4°

Dunnville, Ontario is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -7°C), with roughly 1034 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Dunnville right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Dunnville climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-1°
-6°
Feb
1°
-7°
Mar
4°
-3°
Apr
11°
2°
May
17°
8°
Jun
22°
14°
Jul
24°
17°
Aug
23°
16°
Sep
21°
13°
Oct
14°
7°
Nov
7°
1°
Dec
3°
-2°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Dunnville has changed since 1995

Dunnville sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as St. Catharines. That square ran 1.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the St. Catharines page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Dunnville?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
90±0.5°C94±3.2 km/h9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C95±2.6 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
EC
Env. Canada
81
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C89±5.3 km/h6581% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°16° to 17°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°16° to 17°±2%0% to 2% chance
Mon±1°18° to 19°±6%0% to 6% chance
Tue±2°10° to 12°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±4°14° to 18°±2%0% to 2% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Dunnville

today, local time
Sunrise
07:42
Sunset
18:21
Daylight
10h 39m

Common questions

What's the weather in Dunnville today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Dunnville today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 2% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Dunnville today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Dunnville on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 2% (Env. Canada 0%, European 2%, American 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Dunnville?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Dunnville (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Dunnville?
July is typically the warmest month in Dunnville, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Dunnville get?
The coldest month in Dunnville is February, when overnight lows average about -7°C.
How much rain does Dunnville get?
Dunnville sees roughly 1034 mm of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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