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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Chelsea weather

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Clear,warmer tomorrow

Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 12° in Chelsea today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 1% chance of rain.

12°0°
16°1°
13°3°
7°-1°
8°-1°
16°2°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaysplit ±4°Tuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Env. CanadaGEM model
13°
Clear
Today 13°·Low 1°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
12°
Cloudy
Today 12°·Low 1°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
12°
Mostly clear
Today 12°·Low -1°·Rain 0%
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Chelsea weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Chelsea swings 39°C across the year, from 25°C highs in July to -14°C lows in February, and September is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1025 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
July
25°C average high
Coldest month
February
-14°C average low
Wettest month
September
1025 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
8,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Chelsea and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Chelsea hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Chelsea 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
12° 0°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
16° 1°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
13° 3°
±4°
Tue
Mostly clear
7° -1°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
8° -1°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
16° 2°
models agree
Fri
Mostly clear
14° 5°
±3°
Sat
Drizzle
10° 3°
±6°
Sun
Cloudy
15° 4°
±3°
Mon
Light rain
13° 7°
±3°
Tue
Light drizzle
12° 4°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
5° 1°
±4°
Thu
Light snow
8° 0°
±2°
Fri
Light drizzle
6° 0°
±4°

Chelsea, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Feb (lows around -14°C), with roughly 1025 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Chelsea right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Canada before you trust any single number.

Chelsea climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-5°
-13°
Feb
-4°
-14°
Mar
2°
-7°
Apr
10°
-1°
May
18°
7°
Jun
23°
13°
Jul
25°
16°
Aug
24°
15°
Sep
21°
11°
Oct
13°
5°
Nov
5°
-2°
Dec
-3°
-9°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Chelsea has changed since 1995

Chelsea sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Ottawa. That square shows no clear change in temperature between 1995-2004 and 2015-2024. See the full 30-year picture on the Ottawa page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Chelsea?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±0.8 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
85
/100rank #2
87±0.7°C93±3.5 km/h7687% hitEnvironment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American logo
American
80
/100rank #3
78±1.2°C96±1.8 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1320 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Canada, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°12° to 13°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 16°±1%0% to 1% chance
Mon±4°12° to 15°±49%6% to 55% chance
Tuemodels agree6° to 7°±1%0% to 1% chance
Wed±2°7° to 9°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Chelsea

today, local time
Sunrise
07:31
Sunset
18:02
Daylight
10h 31m

Common questions

What's the weather in Chelsea today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 12° in Chelsea today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 16°, with a 1% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Chelsea today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Chelsea on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 1% (Env. Canada 0%, European 0%, American 1%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Chelsea?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Chelsea (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 85. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Chelsea?
July is typically the warmest month in Chelsea, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Chelsea get?
The coldest month in Chelsea is February, when overnight lows average about -14°C.
How much rain does Chelsea get?
Chelsea sees roughly 1025 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

More CA weather