Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Baie-Saint-Paul today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 14°, with a 41% chance of rain.
Baie-Saint-Paul swings 40°C across the year, from 24°C highs in July to -16°C lows in January, and June is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 991 mm of precipitation.
Warmest month
July
24°C average high
Coldest month
January
-16°C average low
Wettest month
June
991 mm a year
Below freezing
6 months
January, February, March, April, November and December
Comfortable
4 months
May, July, August and September
Residents
7,146
share this forecast
The weather map: all three models at once
Env. Canada, European, American side by side around Baie-Saint-Paul and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Baie-Saint-Paul hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three models
Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side
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Baie-Saint-Paul 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Clear
10°0°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
14°2°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
13°3°
±2°
Tue
Cloudy
6°0°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
6°-1°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
11°0°
±4°
Fri
Light drizzle
12°4°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
9°1°
±6°
Sun
Partly cloudy
13°0°
±8°
Mon
Heavy drizzle
14°5°
±7°
Tue
Light rain
13°4°
±6°
Wed
Drizzle
9°1°
±5°
Thu
Drizzle
6°1°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
6°-1°
±3°
Baie-Saint-Paul, Quebec is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around -16°C), with roughly 991 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Env. Canada, European, American forecast for Baie-Saint-Paul right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
-7°
-16°
Feb
-5°
-15°
Mar
0°
-9°
Apr
7°
-3°
May
16°
5°
Jun
21°
12°
Jul
24°
14°
Aug
23°
14°
Sep
19°
10°
Oct
11°
3°
Nov
4°
-3°
Dec
-4°
-12°
Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How Baie-Saint-Paul's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+1.0°C
Around Baie-Saint-Paul, 2015-2024 averaged 1.0°C warmer than 1995-2004. 3 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average
Days above 25°C
2 more days a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Frost nights
11 fewer nights a year
2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
+4%
2015-2024 against 1995-2004
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
Year
Temp vs average
Days >25°C vs avg
Frost nights vs avg
Wind vs avg
1995
−0.7°C
+7
+8
−2%
1996
−1.0°C
−3
+19
−2%
1997
−1.6°C
−1
+11
−2%
1998
+0.6°C
+0
−11
−2%
1999
+0.4°C
+2
+10
−2%
2000
−1.1°C
−6
+12
−2%
2001
+0.4°C
+4
−3
−5%
2002
−0.8°C
+4
+24
−2%
2003
−1.1°C
+1
+5
−5%
2004
−1.5°C
−6
+10
−5%
2005
+0.2°C
+4
−3
+5%
2006
+0.7°C
−5
−3
−2%
2007
−0.4°C
−4
−0
+8%
2008
−0.1°C
−6
−13
−2%
2009
−0.3°C
−3
+5
+1%
2010
+1.5°C
+5
−5
+5%
2011
+0.6°C
−5
−10
+1%
2012
+1.2°C
+0
−13
−2%
2013
+0.2°C
−1
−2
+5%
2014
−0.3°C
−3
−5
+5%
2015
−0.4°C
−3
+1
+5%
2016
±0.0°C
−6
+1
−2%
2017
−0.2°C
−3
−8
−2%
2018
−0.4°C
+6
+11
+5%
2019
−0.9°C
−2
+1
+5%
2020
+0.4°C
+9
+10
+1%
2021
+1.6°C
+8
−13
−2%
2022
+0.3°C
−3
−6
+1%
2023
+1.4°C
+6
−9
−5%
2024
+2.2°C
+4
−13
+1%
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Baie-Saint-Paul, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Baie-Saint-Paul?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
Provider
CheckWeather-score
Temp
Wind
Rain
Run by
European ★ Best
91
/100rank #1
90±0.6°C
96±1.9 km/h
8994% hit
ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
EC
Env. Canada
84
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C
94±2.8 km/h
7687% hit
Environment and Climate Change CanadaDorval, Québec, Canada
American
79
/100rank #3
81±1.0°C
95±2.7 km/h
6581% hit
NOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Canada? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
Env. CanadaGEM model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separately
Day
Temperature
Rain
Today
±2°9° to 11°
models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow
±3°12° to 15°
±41%0% to 41% chance
Mon
±2°11° to 14°
±46%0% to 46% chance
Tue
±2°5° to 7°
±4%0% to 4% chance
Wed
±3°5° to 9°
±1%0% to 1% chance
The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.
Sunrise and sunset in Baie-Saint-Paul
today, local time
Sunrise
07:13
Sunset
17:37
Daylight
10h 24m
Common questions
What's the weather in Baie-Saint-Paul today?
Saturday, October 24: Env. Canada, the European and the American model agree on a high near 10° in Baie-Saint-Paul today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 14°, with a 41% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Baie-Saint-Paul today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Baie-Saint-Paul on Sunday, October 25: Env. Canada 0%, European 41%, American 16%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Baie-Saint-Paul?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Baie-Saint-Paul (CheckWeather Score 91/100), ahead of the Env. Canada at 84. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the CA accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Baie-Saint-Paul?
July is typically the warmest month in Baie-Saint-Paul, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Baie-Saint-Paul get?
The coldest month in Baie-Saint-Paul is January, when overnight lows average about -16°C.
How much rain does Baie-Saint-Paul get?
Baie-Saint-Paul sees roughly 991 mm of precipitation a year, with June usually the wettest month.
Is Baie-Saint-Paul getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Baie-Saint-Paul, 2015-2024 averaged 1.0°C warmer than 1995-2004.
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