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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Torquay weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Torquay today. Tomorrow: rain, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.

18°15°
16°8°
15°7°
16°7°
18°7°
19°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Drizzle
Feels 18° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 98%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Light showers
Feels 16° · Wind 7 km/h · Humidity 99%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Overcast
Feels 18° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 99%

Latest for Torquay: European (ECMWF): 16° Drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 15° Light showers · German (DWD ICON): 16° Overcast.

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Torquay weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Torquay swings 17°C across the year, from 24°C highs in February to 7°C lows in July, and August is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 630 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
24°C average high
Coldest month
July
7°C average low
Wettest month
August
630 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
19,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Torquay and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Torquay hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Torquay 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
18° 15°
models agree
Tomorrow
Rain
16° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 7°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 7°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 10°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
17° 12°
±2°
Sat
Light rain
19° 12°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
14° 10°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
17° 8°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
20° 10°
±5°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19° 10°
±9°
Fri
Partly cloudy
23° 12°
±11°

Torquay, Victoria is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 24°C) and coldest in Jul (lows around 7°C), with roughly 630 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Torquay right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Torquay climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
23°
15°
Feb
24°
15°
Mar
22°
14°
Apr
18°
11°
May
16°
10°
Jun
14°
8°
Jul
13°
7°
Aug
15°
7°
Sep
16°
8°
Oct
17°
9°
Nov
20°
11°
Dec
22°
13°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Torquay's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Torquay, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2024.

1995: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −1.1°C vs the 30-year average1997: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2000: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2001: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2002: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2009: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2010: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2011: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2012: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2013: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2022: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

1 more day a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: −4 vs the 30-year average1996: −10 vs the 30-year average1997: +1 vs the 30-year average1998: +1 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: +5 vs the 30-year average2001: +4 vs the 30-year average2002: −4 vs the 30-year average2003: +2 vs the 30-year average2004: −2 vs the 30-year average2005: +2 vs the 30-year average2006: +2 vs the 30-year average2007: +2 vs the 30-year average2008: −1 vs the 30-year average2009: +2 vs the 30-year average2010: −0 vs the 30-year average2011: −7 vs the 30-year average2012: +3 vs the 30-year average2013: +5 vs the 30-year average2014: +3 vs the 30-year average2015: +2 vs the 30-year average2016: −0 vs the 30-year average2017: +2 vs the 30-year average2018: +3 vs the 30-year average2019: +6 vs the 30-year average2020: −7 vs the 30-year average2021: −5 vs the 30-year average2022: −7 vs the 30-year average2023: +2 vs the 30-year average2024: +3 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +3% vs the 30-year average1996: +6% vs the 30-year average1997: −4% vs the 30-year average1998: −4% vs the 30-year average1999: −4% vs the 30-year average2000: +1% vs the 30-year average2001: −0% vs the 30-year average2002: +6% vs the 30-year average2003: +3% vs the 30-year average2004: +1% vs the 30-year average2005: −0% vs the 30-year average2006: −4% vs the 30-year average2007: −0% vs the 30-year average2008: −0% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: −4% vs the 30-year average2011: −4% vs the 30-year average2012: +1% vs the 30-year average2013: +5% vs the 30-year average2014: −2% vs the 30-year average2015: −2% vs the 30-year average2016: +3% vs the 30-year average2017: −4% vs the 30-year average2018: +1% vs the 30-year average2019: +1% vs the 30-year average2020: −0% vs the 30-year average2021: +3% vs the 30-year average2022: −2% vs the 30-year average2023: −0% vs the 30-year average2024: −4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgWind vs avg
1995−1.1°C−4+3%
1996−1.1°C−10+6%
1997−0.4°C+1−4%
1998−0.4°C+1−4%
1999+0.1°C−1−4%
2000+0.3°C+5+1%
2001+0.2°C+4−0%
2002−0.2°C−4+6%
2003−0.3°C+2+3%
2004−0.5°C−2+1%
2005+0.3°C+2−0%
2006−0.3°C+2−4%
2007+0.4°C+2−0%
2008−0.1°C−1−0%
2009+0.1°C+2−0%
2010+0.1°C−0−4%
2011±0.0°C−7−4%
2012±0.0°C+3+1%
2013+0.3°C+5+5%
2014+0.3°C+3−2%
2015−0.1°C+2−2%
2016+0.1°C−0+3%
2017+0.4°C+2−4%
2018+0.4°C+3+1%
2019+0.2°C+6+1%
2020−0.4°C−7−0%
2021−0.3°C−5+3%
2022±0.0°C−7−2%
2023+0.3°C+2−0%
2024+0.6°C+3−4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Torquay, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Torquay?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
G
German ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C94±2.8 km/h8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
European logo
European
87
/100rank #2
93±0.4°C93±3.3 km/h7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
81
/100rank #3
86±0.8°C87±6.4 km/h7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°18° to 19°±18%80% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±3°15° to 18°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±21%14% to 35% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±40%13% to 53% chance
Wed±3°16° to 19°±15%3% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Torquay

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:49
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Torquay today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model agree on a high near 18° in Torquay today. Tomorrow: rain, around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Torquay today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Torquay on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 98%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Torquay?
Over the last 30 days, the German model has been the most accurate for Torquay (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the European at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Torquay?
February is typically the warmest month in Torquay, with average highs around 24°C.
How cold does Torquay get?
The coldest month in Torquay is July, when overnight lows average about 7°C.
How much rain does Torquay get?
Torquay sees roughly 630 mm of precipitation a year, with August usually the wettest month.
Is Torquay getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Torquay, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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