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CheckWeather AU›Grovedale
Forecast confidence: Medium · models disagree by 3°C

Grovedale weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

European, the American and the German model put Grovedale's high today between 18° and 21°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: rain, around 17°, with a 100% chance of rain.

19°15°
17°8°
15°6°
16°7°
18°7°
19°9°
Todaysplit ±3°Tomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaysplit ±3°Thursdaysplit ±3°
EuropeanECMWF
16°
Light rain
Feels 18° · Wind 2 km/h · Humidity 97%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Light showers
Feels 17° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 99%
GermanDWD ICON
16°
Light rain
Feels 18° · Wind 4 km/h · Humidity 98%

Latest for Grovedale: European (ECMWF): 16° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 16° Light showers · German (DWD ICON): 16° Light rain.

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Grovedale weather in numbers

from 30 years of measured normals

Grovedale swings 20°C across the year, from 25°C highs in February to 5°C lows in August, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 560 mm of precipitation.

Warmest month
February
25°C average high
Coldest month
August
5°C average low
Wettest month
October
560 mm a year
Below freezing
Never
overnight lows stay above 0°C
Comfortable
4 months
January, February, March and April
Residents
15,000
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The weather map: all three models at once

European, American, German side by side around Grovedale and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Grovedale hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Grovedale 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
19° 15°
±3°
Tomorrow
Rain
17° 8°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
15° 6°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
16° 7°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
18° 7°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
19° 9°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
17° 12°
±2°
Sat
Light rain
19° 11°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
14° 9°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
17° 8°
±3°
Tue
Light rain
21° 9°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
18° 12°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
19° 10°
±8°
Fri
Partly cloudy
23° 12°
±10°

Grovedale, Victoria is at its warmest in Feb (average highs near 25°C) and coldest in Aug (lows around 5°C), with roughly 560 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what European, American, German forecast for Grovedale right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in Australia before you trust any single number.

Grovedale climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
24°
15°
Feb
25°
14°
Mar
23°
13°
Apr
18°
10°
May
16°
9°
Jun
14°
7°
Jul
12°
6°
Aug
14°
5°
Sep
15°
6°
Oct
18°
8°
Nov
21°
10°
Dec
22°
12°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Grovedale has changed since 1995

Grovedale sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Geelong. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Geelong page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Grovedale?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±1.2 km/h8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
G
German
88
/100rank #2
83±0.9°C93±3.3 km/h8994% hitDeutscher Wetterdienst (DWD)Offenbach am Main, Germany
American logo
American
82
/100rank #3
80±1.1°C94±2.9 km/h7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1558 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in Australia, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in Australia? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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GermanDWD ICON
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±3°18° to 21°±10%88% to 98% chance
Tomorrow±3°16° to 18°models agree100% to 100% chance
Mon±2°14° to 16°±25%10% to 35% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±48%5% to 53% chance
Wed±3°16° to 20°±18%0% to 18% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Grovedale

today, local time
Sunrise
06:25
Sunset
19:49
Daylight
13h 24m

Common questions

What's the weather in Grovedale today?
Saturday 24 October: European, the American and the German model put Grovedale's high today between 18° and 21°, a 3° split. Tomorrow: rain, around 17°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Grovedale today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Grovedale on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 100% (European 100%, American 100%, German 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 98%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Grovedale?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Grovedale (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the German at 88. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the AU accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Grovedale?
February is typically the warmest month in Grovedale, with average highs around 25°C.
How cold does Grovedale get?
The coldest month in Grovedale is August, when overnight lows average about 5°C.
How much rain does Grovedale get?
Grovedale sees roughly 560 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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