Poinciana weather
Loading live data…Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow
NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 81° in Poinciana today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 81°, with a 52% chance of rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Poinciana weather alerts and warnings
active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisoriesChecking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Poinciana…
The weather map: all three models at once
NWS, American, European side by side around Poinciana and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Poinciana hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Poinciana 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitPoinciana is a town of about 53,000 people in Florida (FL), sitting at 28.1°N in a subtropical climate zone. NWS, American, European each forecast Poinciana with their own physics, so we line all three up and flag where they disagree. Nearby towns include Haines City, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.
How Poinciana's weather has changed since 1995
30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as changeAround Poinciana, 2015-2024 averaged 2.0°F warmer than 1995-2004. 8 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2023.
Days above 95°F
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Average wind
2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing
Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.
See the numbers year by year
| Year | Temp vs average | Days >95°F vs avg | Wind vs avg |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | −1.6°F | −2 | +4% |
| 1996 | −2.0°F | −12 | +4% |
| 1997 | −0.2°F | −10 | −2% |
| 1998 | +0.2°F | +22 | +4% |
| 1999 | −0.7°F | −5 | +1% |
| 2000 | −0.3°F | +18 | +7% |
| 2001 | −0.7°F | −5 | +1% |
| 2002 | −0.7°F | +4 | −5% |
| 2003 | −1.2°F | −7 | −5% |
| 2004 | −0.5°F | −2 | +4% |
| 2005 | −1.2°F | −11 | +4% |
| 2006 | +0.6°F | +10 | −2% |
| 2007 | +0.4°F | −7 | +1% |
| 2008 | −0.9°F | −3 | +4% |
| 2009 | −0.5°F | −6 | −5% |
| 2010 | −2.5°F | −3 | +1% |
| 2011 | +0.4°F | +10 | −2% |
| 2012 | ±0.0°F | −7 | −2% |
| 2013 | +0.4°F | −12 | −2% |
| 2014 | −0.7°F | −9 | −7% |
| 2015 | +1.3°F | −11 | −7% |
| 2016 | −0.2°F | −11 | −2% |
| 2017 | +1.1°F | +4 | +1% |
| 2018 | +0.2°F | −12 | −2% |
| 2019 | +1.1°F | −2 | +1% |
| 2020 | +1.5°F | +1 | +4% |
| 2021 | +1.1°F | −2 | −5% |
| 2022 | +1.5°F | +15 | −2% |
| 2023 | +2.4°F | +17 | −2% |
| 2024 | +2.2°F | +45 | +4% |
Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Poinciana, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.
Which forecast is most accurate in Poinciana?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.