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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°F

Maricopa weather

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Partly cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 101° in Maricopa today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 104°, with a 4% chance of rain.

101°82°
104°81°
105°82°
106°86°
104°86°
105°87°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
101°
Partly cloudy
Today 101°·Low 80°·Rain 2%
AmericanNOAA GFS
101°
Mostly clear
Today 101°·Low 83°·Rain 2%
EuropeanECMWF
101°
Cloudy
Today 101°·Low 83°·Rain 12%

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Maricopa and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Partly cloudy
101° 82°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
104° 81°
models agree
Mon
Partly cloudy
105° 82°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
106° 86°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
104° 86°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
105° 87°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
102° 85°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
98° 81°
±6°
Sun
Mostly clear
98° 80°
±6°
Mon
Light drizzle
99° 81°
±5°
Tue
Light drizzle
100° 81°
±7°
Wed
Heavy drizzle
98° 83°
±8°
Thu
Thunderstorm
97° 79°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
97° 77°
models agree

Maricopa, AZ is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 110°F) and coldest in Jan (lows around 40°F), with roughly 7 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Maricopa right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Maricopa climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
63°
40°
Feb
67°
44°
Mar
72°
48°
Apr
86°
56°
May
94°
67°
Jun
104°
76°
Jul
110°
86°
Aug
106°
83°
Sep
102°
75°
Oct
93°
65°
Nov
75°
49°
Dec
69°
43°

Which forecast is most accurate in Maricopa?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
92
/100rank #1
94±0.6°F94±1.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
86±1.4°F87±3.9 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°101° to 101°±10%2% to 12% chance
Tomorrow±1°104° to 104°±4%0% to 4% chance
Mon±4°103° to 106°±1%3% to 4% chance
Tue±4°105° to 109°±1%3% to 4% chance
Wedmodels agree104° to 104°±1%14% to 15% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Maricopa

today, local time
Sunrise
06:05
Sunset
18:48
Daylight
12h 43m

Common questions

What's the weather in Maricopa today?
On this page we show what NWS, American, European each forecast for Maricopa today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Maricopa today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from NWS, American, European for Maricopa and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Maricopa?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Maricopa (CheckWeather Score 92/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Maricopa?
July is typically the warmest month in Maricopa, with average highs around 110°F.
How cold does Maricopa get?
The coldest month in Maricopa is January, when overnight lows average about 40°F.
How much rain does Maricopa get?
Maricopa sees roughly 7 in of precipitation a year, with January usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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