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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°F

Jersey City weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 61° in Jersey City today. Tomorrow: clear, around 65°, with a 0% chance of rain.

61°42°
65°40°
69°48°
59°49°
57°43°
64°49°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±10°
NWSNational Blend (NBM)
61°
Partly cloudy
Today 61°·Low 44°·Rain 0%
AmericanNOAA GFS
63°
Cloudy
Today 63°·Low 39°·Rain 0%
EuropeanECMWF
61°
Cloudy
Today 61°·Low 41°·Rain 0%
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Jersey City weather alerts and warnings

active National Weather Service watches, warnings and advisories

Checking the National Weather Service for active alerts covering Jersey City…

Jersey City weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Jersey City swings 61°F across the year, from 85°F highs in July to 24°F lows in February, and July is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 46 in of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 102 days a year at 77°F or above, 34 of them at 86°F or above, 81 frost nights, and rain on 130 days.

Warmest month
July
85°F average high
Coldest month
February
24°F average low
Wettest month
July
46 in a year
Comfortable
4 months
April, May, September and October
Residents
264,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
99/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
102 days
a year at 77°F or above
Frost nights
81 nights
a year below 32°F
Rain days
130 days
a year with 0.04 in or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Jersey City’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

NWS, American, European side by side around Jersey City and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Jersey City hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Jersey City 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
61° 42°
models agree
Tomorrow
Clear
65° 40°
models agree
Mon
Clear
69° 48°
models agree
Tue
Clear
59° 49°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
57° 43°
models agree
Thu
Mostly clear
64° 49°
±10°
Fri
Mostly clear
68° 53°
±6°
Sat
Partly cloudy
65° 51°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
62° 50°
±8°
Mon
Drizzle
63° 55°
±17°
Tue
Cloudy
62° 51°
models agree
Wed
Partly cloudy
54° 44°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
57° 42°
models agree

Jersey City, New Jersey (NJ) is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 85°F) and coldest in Feb (lows around 24°F), with roughly 46 in of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what NWS, American, European forecast for Jersey City right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United States before you trust any single number.

Jersey City climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
38°
25°
Feb
41°
24°
Mar
49°
32°
Apr
60°
41°
May
70°
52°
Jun
80°
61°
Jul
85°
67°
Aug
83°
66°
Sep
76°
59°
Oct
66°
47°
Nov
53°
37°
Dec
43°
29°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Jersey City has changed since 1995

Jersey City sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Staten Island. That square ran 1.6°F warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Staten Island page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Jersey City?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
99
/100rank #1
98±0.2°F98±0.6 mph100100% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
83
/100rank #2
85±1.5°F90±3.1 mph7687% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1999 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United States, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United States? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

NWSNational Blend (NBM)
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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EuropeanECMWF
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°61° to 63°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tomorrow±1°64° to 66°models agree0% to 0% chance
Mon±1°68° to 69°models agree0% to 0% chance
Tue±3°58° to 61°models agree0% to 0% chance
Wed±3°55° to 59°models agree0% to 0% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Jersey City

today, local time
Sunrise
07:17
Sunset
18:02
Daylight
10h 45m

Common questions

What's the weather in Jersey City today?
Saturday, October 24: NWS, the American and the European model agree on a high near 61° in Jersey City today. Tomorrow: clear, around 65°, with a 0% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Jersey City today or tomorrow?
Rain looks unlikely in Jersey City on Sunday, October 25: no model gives more than 0% (NWS 0%, American 0%, European 0%). On Saturday, October 24 the highest chance of rain from any model is 0%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Jersey City?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Jersey City (CheckWeather Score 99/100), ahead of the American at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the US accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Jersey City?
July is typically the warmest month in Jersey City, with average highs around 85°F.
How cold does Jersey City get?
The coldest month in Jersey City is February, when overnight lows average about 24°F.
How much rain does Jersey City get?
Jersey City sees roughly 46 in of precipitation a year, with July usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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