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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Taunton weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Taunton today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain.

16°9°
13°9°
17°9°
16°9°
15°8°
14°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
16°
Rain
Today 16°·Low 9°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
15°
Light rain
Today 15°·Low 9°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
16°
Rain
Today 16°·Low 8°·Rain 100%
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Taunton weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for South West England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for South West England…

Taunton weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Taunton swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in August to 2°C lows in January, and December is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 918 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 10 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 22 frost nights, and rain on 144 days.

Warmest month
August
21°C average high
Coldest month
January
2°C average low
Wettest month
December
918 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
65,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
10 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
22 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
144 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Taunton’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Taunton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Taunton hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Taunton 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
16° 9°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
13° 9°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
17° 9°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
15° 9°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
14° 7°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
12° 6°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Tue
Partly cloudy
11° 6°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
9° 3°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
8° 3°
±5°
Fri
Light drizzle
10° 3°
±3°

Taunton, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 918 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Taunton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Taunton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
8°
2°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
4°
Apr
12°
6°
May
16°
8°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
13°
Sep
18°
11°
Oct
15°
9°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
8°
4°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Taunton's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Taunton, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 6 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.

1995: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average1996: −1.3°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1998: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2003: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.4°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.4°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.5°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.7°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2015: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2021: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2022: +1.0°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

2 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +23 vs the 30-year average1996: −4 vs the 30-year average1997: −2 vs the 30-year average1998: −4 vs the 30-year average1999: −2 vs the 30-year average2000: −6 vs the 30-year average2001: −4 vs the 30-year average2002: −6 vs the 30-year average2003: +5 vs the 30-year average2004: −4 vs the 30-year average2005: −1 vs the 30-year average2006: +5 vs the 30-year average2007: −6 vs the 30-year average2008: −6 vs the 30-year average2009: −5 vs the 30-year average2010: −6 vs the 30-year average2011: −6 vs the 30-year average2012: −5 vs the 30-year average2013: +3 vs the 30-year average2014: −1 vs the 30-year average2015: −5 vs the 30-year average2016: −4 vs the 30-year average2017: +0 vs the 30-year average2018: +11 vs the 30-year average2019: −3 vs the 30-year average2020: +5 vs the 30-year average2021: +2 vs the 30-year average2022: +13 vs the 30-year average2023: +2 vs the 30-year average2024: −3 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

7 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +5 vs the 30-year average1996: +31 vs the 30-year average1997: −3 vs the 30-year average1998: −3 vs the 30-year average1999: −13 vs the 30-year average2000: −4 vs the 30-year average2001: +11 vs the 30-year average2002: −19 vs the 30-year average2003: +2 vs the 30-year average2004: −2 vs the 30-year average2005: +6 vs the 30-year average2006: +16 vs the 30-year average2007: −7 vs the 30-year average2008: −1 vs the 30-year average2009: +5 vs the 30-year average2010: +41 vs the 30-year average2011: −2 vs the 30-year average2012: +2 vs the 30-year average2013: +23 vs the 30-year average2014: −19 vs the 30-year average2015: −6 vs the 30-year average2016: −6 vs the 30-year average2017: −8 vs the 30-year average2018: +1 vs the 30-year average2019: −13 vs the 30-year average2020: −17 vs the 30-year average2021: +6 vs the 30-year average2022: −7 vs the 30-year average2023: +1 vs the 30-year average2024: −10 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +0% vs the 30-year average1996: +0% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: +6% vs the 30-year average1999: +2% vs the 30-year average2000: +4% vs the 30-year average2001: −4% vs the 30-year average2002: +4% vs the 30-year average2003: −2% vs the 30-year average2004: +0% vs the 30-year average2005: −2% vs the 30-year average2006: +2% vs the 30-year average2007: +2% vs the 30-year average2008: +6% vs the 30-year average2009: −2% vs the 30-year average2010: −10% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: +2% vs the 30-year average2014: −2% vs the 30-year average2015: +8% vs the 30-year average2016: −4% vs the 30-year average2017: +0% vs the 30-year average2018: −2% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: +8% vs the 30-year average2021: −6% vs the 30-year average2022: −4% vs the 30-year average2023: +0% vs the 30-year average2024: −4% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995+0.2°C+23+5+0%
1996−1.3°C−4+31+0%
1997+0.1°C−2−3−2%
1998±0.0°C−4−3+6%
1999+0.2°C−2−13+2%
2000−0.2°C−6−4+4%
2001−0.4°C−4+11−4%
2002+0.2°C−6−19+4%
2003±0.0°C+5+2−2%
2004+0.1°C−4−2+0%
2005+0.1°C−1+6−2%
2006+0.4°C+5+16+2%
2007+0.3°C−6−7+2%
2008−0.4°C−6−1+6%
2009−0.2°C−5+5−2%
2010−1.4°C−6+41−10%
2011+0.3°C−6−2+2%
2012−0.5°C−5+2−2%
2013−0.7°C+3+23+2%
2014+0.5°C−1−19−2%
2015±0.0°C−5−6+8%
2016−0.1°C−4−6−4%
2017+0.3°C+0−8+0%
2018+0.4°C+11+1−2%
2019+0.2°C−3−13−2%
2020+0.5°C+5−17+8%
2021+0.1°C+2+6−6%
2022+1.0°C+13−7−4%
2023+0.9°C+2+1+0%
2024+0.7°C−3−10−4%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Taunton, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Taunton?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C98±0.8 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #2
81±1.1°C95±1.6 mph7184% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
76±1.3°C92±2.4 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree13° to 13°±67%33% to 100% chance
Mon±1°17° to 18°±6%94% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 16°±38%62% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree15° to 16°±61%6% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Taunton

today, local time
Sunrise
07:50
Sunset
18:01
Daylight
10h 11m

Common questions

What's the weather in Taunton today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 16° in Taunton today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 13°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Taunton today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Taunton on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 33%, European 79%, American 100%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Taunton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Taunton (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Met Office at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Taunton?
August is typically the warmest month in Taunton, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Taunton get?
The coldest month in Taunton is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Taunton get?
Taunton sees roughly 918 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.
Is Taunton getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Taunton, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.

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