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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Stroud weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Stroud today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 12°, with a 91% chance of rain.

15°7°
12°8°
16°8°
16°9°
14°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
12°
Light drizzle
Feels 7° · Wind 19 mph · Humidity 90%
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Light rain
Feels 6° · Wind 20 mph · Humidity 94%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Light drizzle
Feels 6° · Wind 23 mph · Humidity 92%

Latest for Stroud: Met Office (UKMO model): 12° Light drizzle · European (ECMWF): 11° Light rain · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Light drizzle.

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Stroud weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

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Stroud weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Stroud swings 19°C across the year, from 20°C highs in July to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 848 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 11 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 34 frost nights, and rain on 150 days.

Warmest month
July
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
848 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
60,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
American
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
11 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
34 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
150 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Stroud’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Stroud and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Stroud hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Stroud 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
12° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 9°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Thu
Fog
13° 8°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
13° 6°
models agree
Sun
Mostly clear
12° 5°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
11° 5°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
10° 5°
±4°
Wed
Cloudy
9° 3°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
7° 2°
±2°
Fri
Cloudy
9° 2°
±3°

Stroud, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 848 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Stroud right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Stroud climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
7°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
13°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
4°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Stroud has changed since 1995

Stroud sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Gloucester. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Gloucester page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Stroud?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
American logo
American ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
88±0.7°C94±2.0 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
European logo
European
89
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C98±0.6 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #3
91±0.5°C97±1.1 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 12°±91%0% to 91% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±4%96% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±39%61% to 100% chance
Wedmodels agree14° to 15°±56%11% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Stroud

today, local time
Sunrise
07:48
Sunset
17:56
Daylight
10h 8m

Common questions

What's the weather in Stroud today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Stroud today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 12°, with a 91% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Stroud today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Stroud on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 0%, European 39%, American 91%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Stroud?
Over the last 30 days, the American model has been the most accurate for Stroud (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the European at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Stroud?
July is typically the warmest month in Stroud, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Stroud get?
The coldest month in Stroud is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Stroud get?
Stroud sees roughly 848 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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