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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Southend-on-Sea weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Southend-on-Sea today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain.

15°7°
14°9°
16°8°
16°10°
15°8°
13°8°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowsplit ±3°Mondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
11°
Drizzle
Feels 8° · Wind 11 mph · Humidity 92%
EuropeanECMWF
11°
Heavy drizzle
Feels 8° · Wind 13 mph · Humidity 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
11°
Drizzle
Feels 7° · Wind 19 mph · Humidity 85%

Latest for Southend-on-Sea: Met Office (UKMO model): 11° Drizzle · European (ECMWF): 11° Heavy drizzle · American (NOAA GFS): 11° Drizzle.

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Southend-on-Sea weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for London & South East England

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for London & South East England…

Southend-on-Sea weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Southend-on-Sea swings 19°C across the year, from 21°C highs in July to 2°C lows in February, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 619 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 19 days a year at 25°C or above, 3 of them at 30°C or above, 19 frost nights, and rain on 131 days.

Warmest month
July
21°C average high
Coldest month
February
2°C average low
Wettest month
October
619 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
May, June, July and August
Residents
295,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
93/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
19 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
19 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
131 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Southend-on-Sea’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Southend-on-Sea and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Southend-on-Sea hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Southend-on-Sea 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
14° 9°
±3°
Mon
Drizzle
16° 8°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Mostly clear
15° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
13° 8°
±4°
Fri
Cloudy
14° 9°
models agree
Sat
Heavy drizzle
12° 9°
±3°
Sun
Drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
12° 6°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
13° 7°
±4°
Wed
Light drizzle
12° 5°
±4°
Thu
Cloudy
9° 3°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
9° 2°
models agree

Southend-on-Sea, England. Often shortened to Southend. Below we compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Southend-on-Sea right now and flag exactly where they disagree, then break down Southend-on-Sea's weather month by month and which forecast model has been most accurate here.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Southend-on-Sea weather by month

what to expect in Southend-on-Sea through the year, 1991-2020 averages

Here is Southend-on-Sea's typical weather in each month: the average daytime high and overnight low in °C, how each month feels, and the wettest month marked. Use it to plan any trip to Southend-on-Sea by season.

Jan
8°
3°
Cool
Feb
9°
2°
Cool
Mar
10°
4°
Cool
Apr
13°
6°
Cool
May
16°
8°
Mild
Jun
20°
11°
Mild
Jul
21°
14°
Mild
Aug
21°
13°
Mild
Sep
19°
11°
Mild
Oct
15°
9°
Mild
Wettest
Nov
11°
6°
Cool
Dec
8°
4°
Cool

What Southend-on-Sea's weather is like through the year

Southend-on-Sea runs from warm summers, with July highs near 21°C, to cold winters, when February lows sit around 2°C (a swing of about 19°C across the year). October is usually the wettest month, and Southend-on-Sea sees roughly 619 mm of precipitation annually.

Best time to visit Southend-on-Sea

The most comfortable time to visit Southend-on-Sea is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.

How Southend-on-Sea's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.6°C

Around Southend-on-Sea, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004. 5 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.

1995: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average1996: −1.4°C vs the 30-year average1997: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2002: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2003: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2004: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2005: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2009: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.4°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2013: −1.0°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.7°C vs the 30-year average2015: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2016: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average2021: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2022: +1.1°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.9°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

3 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +13 vs the 30-year average1996: −2 vs the 30-year average1997: +6 vs the 30-year average1998: −4 vs the 30-year average1999: −1 vs the 30-year average2000: −7 vs the 30-year average2001: −2 vs the 30-year average2002: −4 vs the 30-year average2003: +5 vs the 30-year average2004: −5 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: +8 vs the 30-year average2007: −7 vs the 30-year average2008: −5 vs the 30-year average2009: −5 vs the 30-year average2010: −6 vs the 30-year average2011: −6 vs the 30-year average2012: −5 vs the 30-year average2013: −3 vs the 30-year average2014: −6 vs the 30-year average2015: −6 vs the 30-year average2016: −1 vs the 30-year average2017: −2 vs the 30-year average2018: +10 vs the 30-year average2019: +1 vs the 30-year average2020: +5 vs the 30-year average2021: −1 vs the 30-year average2022: +20 vs the 30-year average2023: +3 vs the 30-year average2024: −3 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

4 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +1 vs the 30-year average1996: +28 vs the 30-year average1997: −5 vs the 30-year average1998: −3 vs the 30-year average1999: −8 vs the 30-year average2000: −10 vs the 30-year average2001: +4 vs the 30-year average2002: −14 vs the 30-year average2003: +3 vs the 30-year average2004: +1 vs the 30-year average2005: −3 vs the 30-year average2006: +6 vs the 30-year average2007: −7 vs the 30-year average2008: +3 vs the 30-year average2009: +13 vs the 30-year average2010: +41 vs the 30-year average2011: −7 vs the 30-year average2012: +4 vs the 30-year average2013: +19 vs the 30-year average2014: −17 vs the 30-year average2015: −0 vs the 30-year average2016: −8 vs the 30-year average2017: +4 vs the 30-year average2018: −1 vs the 30-year average2019: −10 vs the 30-year average2020: −18 vs the 30-year average2021: +10 vs the 30-year average2022: −6 vs the 30-year average2023: −6 vs the 30-year average2024: −10 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

+1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +3% vs the 30-year average1996: −1% vs the 30-year average1997: −3% vs the 30-year average1998: +6% vs the 30-year average1999: +3% vs the 30-year average2000: +3% vs the 30-year average2001: −3% vs the 30-year average2002: +1% vs the 30-year average2003: −7% vs the 30-year average2004: −3% vs the 30-year average2005: −3% vs the 30-year average2006: +1% vs the 30-year average2007: +3% vs the 30-year average2008: +6% vs the 30-year average2009: −3% vs the 30-year average2010: −7% vs the 30-year average2011: +1% vs the 30-year average2012: −1% vs the 30-year average2013: +1% vs the 30-year average2014: −1% vs the 30-year average2015: +6% vs the 30-year average2016: −1% vs the 30-year average2017: −1% vs the 30-year average2018: −3% vs the 30-year average2019: −1% vs the 30-year average2020: +8% vs the 30-year average2021: −3% vs the 30-year average2022: −3% vs the 30-year average2023: +3% vs the 30-year average2024: −1% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.1°C+13+1+3%
1996−1.4°C−2+28−1%
1997±0.0°C+6−5−3%
1998−0.2°C−4−3+6%
1999+0.1°C−1−8+3%
2000−0.2°C−7−10+3%
2001−0.6°C−2+4−3%
2002+0.3°C−4−14+1%
2003−0.1°C+5+3−7%
2004−0.1°C−5+1−3%
2005±0.0°C−3−3−3%
2006+0.4°C+8+6+1%
2007+0.3°C−7−7+3%
2008−0.2°C−5+3+6%
2009±0.0°C−5+13−3%
2010−1.4°C−6+41−7%
2011+0.3°C−6−7+1%
2012−0.6°C−5+4−1%
2013−1.0°C−3+19+1%
2014+0.7°C−6−17−1%
2015±0.0°C−6−0+6%
2016±0.0°C−1−8−1%
2017+0.2°C−2+4−1%
2018+0.4°C+10−1−3%
2019+0.3°C+1−10−1%
2020+0.6°C+5−18+8%
2021−0.2°C−1+10−3%
2022+1.1°C+20−6−3%
2023+0.9°C+3−6+3%
2024+0.8°C−3−10−1%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Southend-on-Sea, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Southend-on-Sea?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
87
/100rank #2
90±0.5°C97±1.0 mph7687% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
87
/100rank #3
90±0.6°C90±3.0 mph8290% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Bottom line: over the last 30 days the European model has been the most accurate forecast for Southend-on-Sea, scoring 93/100 on our CheckWeather Score, ahead of the Met Office at 87. See the full UK accuracy scoreboard for exactly how every model is tested.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±3°13° to 16°±10%90% to 100% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±19%81% to 100% chance
Tue±1°16° to 17°±32%35% to 67% chance
Wedmodels agree15° to 15°±4%0% to 4% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Southend-on-Sea

today, local time
Sunrise
07:36
Sunset
17:45
Daylight
10h 9m

Common questions

What's the weather in Southend-on-Sea today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Southend-on-Sea today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 14°, with a 100% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Southend-on-Sea today or tomorrow?
Rain is likely in Southend-on-Sea on Sunday 25 October: every model gives at least 90% (Met Office 100%, European 90%, American 100%). On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Southend-on-Sea?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Southend-on-Sea (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the Met Office at 87. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Southend-on-Sea?
July is typically the warmest month in Southend-on-Sea, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Southend-on-Sea get?
The coldest month in Southend-on-Sea is February, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Southend-on-Sea get?
Southend-on-Sea sees roughly 619 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
When is the best time to visit Southend-on-Sea?
The most comfortable time to visit Southend-on-Sea is usually May, June, July and August, when daytime highs sit in the pleasant 16-26°C range and the heaviest October rain is behind you.
Does it snow in Southend-on-Sea?
Rarely - Southend-on-Sea very seldom sees overnight lows drop below freezing, so lasting snow is unusual.
Is Southend-on-Sea getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Southend-on-Sea, 2015-2024 averaged 0.6°C warmer than 1995-2004.

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