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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 0°C

Shropshire weather

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Cloudy,much the same tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Shropshire today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 11°, with a 33% chance of rain.

11°7°
11°6°
10°5°
9°5°
9°6°
9°4°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agreeSaturdaymodels agreeSundaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
8°
Light drizzle
Feels 7° · Wind 5 mph · Humidity 91%
EuropeanECMWF
6°
Partly cloudy
Feels 4° · Wind 6 mph · Humidity 95%
AmericanNOAA GFS
9°
Light drizzle
Feels 6° · Wind 9 mph · Humidity 92%

Latest for Shropshire: Met Office (UKMO model): 8° Light drizzle · European (ECMWF): 6° Partly cloudy · American (NOAA GFS): 9° Light drizzle.

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Shropshire weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for West Midlands…

Shropshire weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Shropshire swings 19°C across the year, from 20°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 713 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 9 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 152 days.

Warmest month
August
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
713 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Most accurate here
European
89/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
9 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
152 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Shropshire’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Shropshire and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Shropshire hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Shropshire 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Cloudy
11° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
11° 6°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
9° 5°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
9° 6°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
9° 4°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
9° 2°
models agree
Tue
Clear
9° 4°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
7° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
8° 2°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
9° 5°
±3°
Sat
Cloudy
9° 6°
models agree
Sun
Cloudy
10° 4°
models agree
Mon
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree

Shropshire, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 713 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Shropshire right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Shropshire climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
6°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
18°
10°
Jul
19°
12°
Aug
20°
12°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
13°
8°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Shropshire has changed since 1995

Shropshire sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Telford. That square ran 0.5°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Telford page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Shropshire?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
89
/100rank #1
95±0.3°C97±1.1 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
80
/100rank #2
84±0.9°C95±1.7 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
73
/100rank #3
79±1.1°C91±2.9 mph5374% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Todaymodels agree11° to 12°±31%2% to 33% chance
Tomorrow±1°11° to 12°±21%12% to 33% chance
Thu±2°9° to 11°±2%0% to 2% chance
Fri±1°9° to 10°±7%0% to 7% chance
Sat±2°8° to 10°±22%11% to 33% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Shropshire

today, local time
Sunrise
07:11
Sunset
16:37
Daylight
9h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Shropshire today?
Tuesday 3 November: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 11° in Shropshire today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 11°, with a 33% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Shropshire today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Shropshire on Wednesday 4 November: Met Office 33%, European 12%, American 23%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Tuesday 3 November the highest chance of rain from any model is 33%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Shropshire?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Shropshire (CheckWeather Score 89/100), ahead of the Met Office at 80. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Shropshire?
August is typically the warmest month in Shropshire, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Shropshire get?
The coldest month in Shropshire is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Shropshire get?
Shropshire sees roughly 713 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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