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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Telford weather

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Light rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Telford today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 33% chance of rain.

14°6°
11°8°
16°7°
15°8°
14°8°
12°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
14°
Light rain
Today 14°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Light rain
Today 14°·Low 5°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 6°·Rain 100%
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Telford weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for West Midlands

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for West Midlands…

Telford weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Telford swings 19°C across the year, from 20°C highs in July to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 774 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 10 days a year at 25°C or above, 1 of them at 30°C or above, 31 frost nights, and rain on 154 days.

Warmest month
July
20°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
774 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
156,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
88/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
10 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
31 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
154 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Telford’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Telford and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Telford hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Telford 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light rain
14° 6°
models agree
Tomorrow
Light drizzle
11° 8°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
16° 7°
models agree
Tue
Light drizzle
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
14° 8°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
12° 7°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
13° 7°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Sun
Light drizzle
10° 5°
±3°
Mon
Light drizzle
10° 4°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
8° 4°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
8° 2°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
8° 1°
models agree
Fri
Cloudy
8° 2°
±5°

Telford, England is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 20°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 774 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Telford right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Telford climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
8°
2°
Mar
9°
3°
Apr
12°
5°
May
15°
7°
Jun
19°
10°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
20°
13°
Sep
18°
10°
Oct
14°
8°
Nov
10°
5°
Dec
7°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How Telford's weather has changed since 1995

30 years of daily data, 1995-2024, shown as change
+0.5°C

Around Telford, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004. 4 of the 10 warmest years since 1995 fall in the last ten, and the warmest was 2022.

1995: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average1996: −1.3°C vs the 30-year average1997: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average1998: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average1999: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2000: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2001: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2002: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2003: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2004: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2005: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2006: +0.5°C vs the 30-year average2007: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2008: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2009: −0.3°C vs the 30-year average2010: −1.5°C vs the 30-year average2011: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2012: −0.6°C vs the 30-year average2013: −0.9°C vs the 30-year average2014: +0.4°C vs the 30-year average2015: −0.1°C vs the 30-year average2016: −0.2°C vs the 30-year average2017: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2018: +0.2°C vs the 30-year average2019: +0.1°C vs the 30-year average2020: +0.3°C vs the 30-year average2021: ±0.0°C vs the 30-year average2022: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2023: +0.8°C vs the 30-year average2024: +0.6°C vs the 30-year average
1995each stripe is one year2024
cooler than averagearound averagewarmer than average

Days above 25°C

2 more days a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +15 vs the 30-year average1996: −3 vs the 30-year average1997: +3 vs the 30-year average1998: −5 vs the 30-year average1999: −2 vs the 30-year average2000: −4 vs the 30-year average2001: −0 vs the 30-year average2002: −5 vs the 30-year average2003: +5 vs the 30-year average2004: −4 vs the 30-year average2005: +3 vs the 30-year average2006: +11 vs the 30-year average2007: −5 vs the 30-year average2008: −4 vs the 30-year average2009: −3 vs the 30-year average2010: −5 vs the 30-year average2011: −2 vs the 30-year average2012: −5 vs the 30-year average2013: −0 vs the 30-year average2014: −4 vs the 30-year average2015: −3 vs the 30-year average2016: −1 vs the 30-year average2017: −0 vs the 30-year average2018: +2 vs the 30-year average2019: −0 vs the 30-year average2020: +2 vs the 30-year average2021: +2 vs the 30-year average2022: +7 vs the 30-year average2023: +6 vs the 30-year average2024: −0 vs the 30-year average

Frost nights

12 fewer nights a year

2015-2024 against 1995-2004, below 0°C. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +19 vs the 30-year average1996: +37 vs the 30-year average1997: −1 vs the 30-year average1998: −9 vs the 30-year average1999: −14 vs the 30-year average2000: −2 vs the 30-year average2001: +26 vs the 30-year average2002: −15 vs the 30-year average2003: +4 vs the 30-year average2004: −2 vs the 30-year average2005: +2 vs the 30-year average2006: +12 vs the 30-year average2007: −16 vs the 30-year average2008: +10 vs the 30-year average2009: +2 vs the 30-year average2010: +47 vs the 30-year average2011: −9 vs the 30-year average2012: −1 vs the 30-year average2013: +29 vs the 30-year average2014: −25 vs the 30-year average2015: −12 vs the 30-year average2016: −1 vs the 30-year average2017: −8 vs the 30-year average2018: +6 vs the 30-year average2019: −15 vs the 30-year average2020: −22 vs the 30-year average2021: +9 vs the 30-year average2022: −10 vs the 30-year average2023: −7 vs the 30-year average2024: −21 vs the 30-year average

Average wind

−1%

2015-2024 against 1995-2004. Within the normal year-to-year swing

1995: +2% vs the 30-year average1996: +2% vs the 30-year average1997: −2% vs the 30-year average1998: +8% vs the 30-year average1999: +4% vs the 30-year average2000: +2% vs the 30-year average2001: −6% vs the 30-year average2002: +2% vs the 30-year average2003: −4% vs the 30-year average2004: −0% vs the 30-year average2005: +2% vs the 30-year average2006: +2% vs the 30-year average2007: +2% vs the 30-year average2008: +8% vs the 30-year average2009: −0% vs the 30-year average2010: −11% vs the 30-year average2011: +2% vs the 30-year average2012: −2% vs the 30-year average2013: −0% vs the 30-year average2014: −0% vs the 30-year average2015: +6% vs the 30-year average2016: −4% vs the 30-year average2017: −0% vs the 30-year average2018: −2% vs the 30-year average2019: −2% vs the 30-year average2020: +6% vs the 30-year average2021: −6% vs the 30-year average2022: −2% vs the 30-year average2023: −0% vs the 30-year average2024: −2% vs the 30-year average

Bars: each year against the area's 30-year average. Dashed lines: the average of the first and the last ten years.

See the numbers year by year
YearTemp vs averageDays >25°C vs avgFrost nights vs avgWind vs avg
1995−0.2°C+15+19+2%
1996−1.3°C−3+37+2%
1997+0.1°C+3−1−2%
1998−0.1°C−5−9+8%
1999+0.2°C−2−14+4%
2000−0.2°C−4−2+2%
2001−0.6°C−0+26−6%
2002±0.0°C−5−15+2%
2003±0.0°C+5+4−4%
2004+0.2°C−4−2−0%
2005+0.3°C+3+2+2%
2006+0.5°C+11+12+2%
2007+0.3°C−5−16+2%
2008−0.3°C−4+10+8%
2009−0.3°C−3+2−0%
2010−1.5°C−5+47−11%
2011+0.3°C−2−9+2%
2012−0.6°C−5−1−2%
2013−0.9°C−0+29−0%
2014+0.4°C−4−25−0%
2015−0.1°C−3−12+6%
2016−0.2°C−1−1−4%
2017+0.2°C−0−8−0%
2018+0.2°C+2+6−2%
2019+0.1°C−0−15−2%
2020+0.3°C+2−22+6%
2021±0.0°C+2+9−6%
2022+0.8°C+7−10−2%
2023+0.8°C+6−7−0%
2024+0.6°C−0−21−2%

Source: NASA POWER daily data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, 1995-2024. Each value describes a grid square of about 50 km around Telford, not a weather station, and a square that takes in sea or a large lake runs milder than the city itself. That is why this section shows change against the square's own 30-year average rather than counts you could compare with a local station. Rain and snow are left out because their long-term record in this dataset is not consistent over time. "Within the normal year-to-year swing" means the change is smaller than the usual differences between single years.

Which forecast is most accurate in Telford?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
88
/100rank #1
87±0.7°C98±0.7 mph8290% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
81
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C97±1.0 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
74
/100rank #3
87±0.7°C90±3.1 mph4771% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree10° to 11°±15%18% to 33% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°±12%88% to 100% chance
Tue±1°15° to 16°±48%52% to 100% chance
Wed±1°13° to 14°±56%11% to 67% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Telford

today, local time
Sunrise
07:51
Sunset
17:55
Daylight
10h 4m

Common questions

What's the weather in Telford today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 14° in Telford today. Tomorrow: light drizzle, around 11°, with a 33% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Telford today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Telford on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 33%, European 18%, American 32%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Telford?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Telford (CheckWeather Score 88/100), ahead of the Met Office at 81. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Telford?
July is typically the warmest month in Telford, with average highs around 20°C.
How cold does Telford get?
The coldest month in Telford is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Telford get?
Telford sees roughly 774 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.
Is Telford getting warmer?
Yes. In NASA's reanalysis for the area around Telford, 2015-2024 averaged 0.5°C warmer than 1995-2004.

Nearby

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