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CheckWeather UKPorthcawl
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Porthcawl weather

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Light drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 24° in Porthcawl today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 18°, with a 97% chance of rain.

24°14°
18°16°
17°12°
17°12°
18°13°
20°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±2°
Met OfficeUKMO model
24°
Light drizzle
Today 24°·Low 15°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
23°
Drizzle
Today 23°·Low 13°·Rain 88%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Cloudy
Today 24°·Low 14°·Rain 48%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Porthcawl and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
24° 14°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
18° 16°
models agree
Tue
Rain
17° 12°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
17° 12°
models agree
Thu
Rain
18° 13°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
20° 13°
±2°
Sat
Drizzle
18° 10°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
19° 16°
models agree
Mon
Light drizzle
19° 14°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
19° 13°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
17° 11°
±3°
Thu
Drizzle
17° 11°
±3°
Fri
Light rain
18° 12°
±3°
Sat
Light drizzle
16° 11°
models agree

Porthcawl, Wales is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 4°C), with roughly 1937 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Porthcawl right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Porthcawl climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
16°
10°
Jun
19°
12°
Jul
18°
13°
Aug
19°
14°
Sep
18°
13°
Oct
15°
11°
Nov
11°
Dec
10°

Which forecast is most accurate in Porthcawl?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
87
/100rank #1
90±0.5°C96±1.2 mph7687% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
82
/100rank #2
85±0.8°C92±2.7 mph7184% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
77
/100rank #3
85±0.8°C92±2.4 mph5877% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°23° to 24°±40%48% to 88% chance
Tomorrow±1°18° to 19°±62%35% to 97% chance
Tuemodels agree17° to 17°±13%87% to 100% chance
Wed±2°17° to 18°±8%5% to 13% chance
Thu±1°17° to 19°±8%48% to 56% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Porthcawl

today, local time
Sunrise
06:35
Sunset
19:50
Daylight
13h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Porthcawl today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Porthcawl today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Porthcawl today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Porthcawl and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Porthcawl?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Porthcawl (CheckWeather Score 87/100), ahead of the American at 82. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Porthcawl?
June is typically the warmest month in Porthcawl, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Porthcawl get?
The coldest month in Porthcawl is January, when overnight lows average about 4°C.
How much rain does Porthcawl get?
Porthcawl sees roughly 1937 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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