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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Pontypool weather

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Rain,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Pontypool today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 11°, with a 91% chance of rain.

15°7°
11°7°
15°8°
15°8°
14°8°
12°7°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeMondaymodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
15°
Rain
Today 15°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
EuropeanECMWF
14°
Rain
Today 14°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
AmericanNOAA GFS
15°
Showers
Today 15°·Low 7°·Rain 100%
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Pontypool weather warnings

Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for Wales

Checking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…

Pontypool weather in numbers

measured normals and 10 years of recorded weather

Pontypool swings 18°C across the year, from 19°C highs in August to 1°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1521 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 6 days a year at 25°C or above, 35 frost nights, and rain on 166 days.

Warmest month
August
19°C average high
Coldest month
January
1°C average low
Wettest month
October
1521 mm a year
Comfortable
4 months
June, July, August and September
Residents
36,000
share this forecast
Most accurate here
European
90/100 CheckWeather Score
Warm days
6 days
a year at 25°C or above
Frost nights
35 nights
a year below 0°C
Rain days
166 days
a year with 1 mm or more

Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Pontypool’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Pontypool and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
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Pontypool hourly forecast: next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

Rain in the next 24 hours, model by model

each model's own hourly precipitation, side by side

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Pontypool 10-day forecast, out to 14 days

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Rain
15° 7°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
11° 7°
models agree
Mon
Light rain
15° 8°
models agree
Tue
Thunderstorm
15° 8°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
14° 8°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
12° 7°
models agree
Fri
Drizzle
13° 7°
models agree
Sat
Drizzle
12° 6°
models agree
Sun
Clear
10° 5°
±2°
Mon
Cloudy
10° 5°
models agree
Tue
Cloudy
9° 4°
±3°
Wed
Cloudy
8° 2°
±3°
Thu
Cloudy
7° 0°
±3°
Fri
Light drizzle
8° 2°
±6°

Pontypool, Wales is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 19°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 1521 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Pontypool right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Pontypool climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)
Jan
7°
1°
Feb
7°
1°
Mar
8°
3°
Apr
11°
4°
May
15°
7°
Jun
18°
9°
Jul
18°
11°
Aug
19°
12°
Sep
16°
10°
Oct
13°
7°
Nov
9°
5°
Dec
6°
3°

Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.

How the weather around Pontypool has changed since 1995

Pontypool sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Cardiff. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Cardiff page.

Which forecast is most accurate in Pontypool?

CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather-scoreTempWindRainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
90
/100rank #1
86±0.8°C98±0.8 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
89
/100rank #2
90±0.6°C97±0.9 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
70
/100rank #3
82±1.0°C91±2.7 mph4268% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

What do you think of the forecasts?

your vote counts

The accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.

Met OfficeUKMO model
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EuropeanECMWF
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AmericanNOAA GFS
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One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°14° to 15°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tomorrow±1°10° to 11°±58%33% to 91% chance
Mon±1°15° to 16°models agree100% to 100% chance
Tue±1°14° to 15°±25%75% to 100% chance
Wed±1°13° to 14°±83%17% to 100% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Pontypool

today, local time
Sunrise
07:52
Sunset
17:59
Daylight
10h 7m

Common questions

What's the weather in Pontypool today?
Saturday 24 October: Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Pontypool today. Tomorrow: drizzle, around 11°, with a 91% chance of rain. The forecast on this page refreshes live.
Will it rain in Pontypool today or tomorrow?
The models split on rain in Pontypool on Sunday 25 October: Met Office 33%, European 35%, American 91%. When they disagree like this, treat any single app's answer with caution. On Saturday 24 October the highest chance of rain from any model is 100%. The hourly strip and the model-by-model rain panel above update live.
Which forecast is most accurate for Pontypool?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Pontypool (CheckWeather Score 90/100), ahead of the Met Office at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Pontypool?
August is typically the warmest month in Pontypool, with average highs around 19°C.
How cold does Pontypool get?
The coldest month in Pontypool is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Pontypool get?
Pontypool sees roughly 1521 mm of precipitation a year, with October usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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