Nelson weather
Loading live data…Heavy rain,rain likely tomorrow
Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 15° in Nelson today. Tomorrow: cloudy, around 11°, with a 87% chance of rain.
Latest for Nelson: Met Office (UKMO model): 12° Rain · European (ECMWF): 13° Rain · American (NOAA GFS): 12° Rain.
CheckWeather.io on iPhoneFree. No ads, no account.Nelson weather warnings
Met Office yellow, amber and red warnings for WalesChecking the Met Office for warnings in force for Wales…
Nelson weather in numbers
measured normals and 10 years of recorded weatherNelson swings 16°C across the year, from 18°C highs in July to 2°C lows in January, and October is usually the wettest month in a year that brings about 1482 mm of precipitation. Over 10 years of recorded weather it averages 5 days a year at 25°C or above, 26 frost nights, and rain on 177 days.
Day counts are from the ERA5 reanalysis for Nelson’s grid square, 2016 to 2025, counted the same way for every city so the numbers compare. A reanalysis square is an area, not a weather station, so it is good for counting days and not for a single day’s record.
The weather map: all three models at once
Met Office, European, American side by side around Nelson and nearby towns.Live rain radar →Nelson hourly forecast: next 14 hours
consensus of the three modelsRain in the next 24 hours, model by model
each model's own hourly precipitation, side by sideLoading the three models…
Nelson 10-day forecast, out to 14 days
where the models agree, and where they splitNelson, Wales is at its warmest in Jul (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 1482 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Nelson right now, and see exactly where they disagree.
We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.
Nelson climate by month
average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year (1991-2020)Source: 1991-2020 averages, ERA5 for this place adjusted with NASA POWER.
How the weather around Nelson has changed since 1995
Nelson sits in the same roughly 50 km square of NASA's reanalysis as Cardiff. That square ran 0.4°C warmer in 2015-2024 than in 1995-2004. See the full 30-year picture on the Cardiff page.
Which forecast is most accurate in Nelson?
CheckWeather Score, graded against the weather that actually happened
The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy, each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1950 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.
What do you think of the forecasts?
your vote countsThe accuracy above is the measured record. This is your opinion: which forecast service do you trust most in United Kingdom? Give each 1 to 5 stars.
One vote per service. Anonymous: we store no personal data, only a one-way hash of your connection for a day to stop double votes.
Where the models disagree
temperature and rain, judged separatelyThe models often agree on temperature and still split on rain, and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.