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CheckWeather UKMerthyr Tydfil
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 2°C

Merthyr Tydfil weather

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Heavy drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 23° in Merthyr Tydfil today. Tomorrow looks drizzle around 18°, with a 91% chance of rain.

23°12°
18°14°
16°10°
16°10°
17°11°
18°11°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaysplit ±4°
Met OfficeUKMO model
23°
Heavy drizzle
Today 23°·Low 13°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
22°
Light rain
Today 22°·Low 12°·Rain 86%
AmericanNOAA GFS
24°
Light drizzle
Today 24°·Low 12°·Rain 53%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Merthyr Tydfil and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Heavy drizzle
23° 12°
models agree
Tomorrow
Drizzle
18° 14°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
16° 10°
models agree
Wed
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Thu
Drizzle
17° 11°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
18° 11°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
18°
±3°
Sun
Light rain
19° 14°
±4°
Mon
Light drizzle
18° 13°
models agree
Tue
Light rain
17° 12°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
17°
±6°
Thu
Drizzle
17°
±5°
Fri
Heavy drizzle
17° 11°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
16°
±7°

Merthyr Tydfil, Wales is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 2°C), with roughly 2071 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Merthyr Tydfil right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Merthyr Tydfil climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
11°
May
16°
Jun
18°
11°
Jul
18°
12°
Aug
18°
12°
Sep
17°
12°
Oct
14°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Merthyr Tydfil?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
96±0.2°C98±0.7 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
89
/100rank #2
75±1.4°C97±1.0 mph100100% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
78
/100rank #3
57±2.4°C88±3.8 mph9597% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±2°22° to 24°±33%53% to 86% chance
Tomorrow±1°17° to 18°±40%51% to 91% chance
Tue±2°15° to 17°±6%92% to 98% chance
Wed±2°15° to 17°±15%10% to 25% chance
Thu±1°16° to 17°±15%58% to 73% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Merthyr Tydfil

today, local time
Sunrise
06:34
Sunset
19:49
Daylight
13h 15m

Common questions

What's the weather in Merthyr Tydfil today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Merthyr Tydfil today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Merthyr Tydfil today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Merthyr Tydfil and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Merthyr Tydfil?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Merthyr Tydfil (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Met Office at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Merthyr Tydfil?
June is typically the warmest month in Merthyr Tydfil, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Merthyr Tydfil get?
The coldest month in Merthyr Tydfil is January, when overnight lows average about 2°C.
How much rain does Merthyr Tydfil get?
Merthyr Tydfil sees roughly 2071 mm of precipitation a year, with March usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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