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Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Luton weather

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Light drizzle,cooler tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 25° in Luton today. Tomorrow looks cloudy around 22°, with a 14% chance of rain.

25°13°
22°16°
19°12°
19°10°
17°10°
21°13°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
26°
Light drizzle
Today 26°·Low 13°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
25°
Light drizzle
Today 25°·Low 12°·Rain 35%
AmericanNOAA GFS
25°
Light drizzle
Today 25°·Low 13°·Rain 26%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Luton and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Light drizzle
25° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Cloudy
22° 16°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
19° 12°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
19° 10°
models agree
Thu
Cloudy
17° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
21° 13°
models agree
Sat
Cloudy
21°
±5°
Sun
Light drizzle
22° 15°
±4°
Mon
Cloudy
22° 13°
±4°
Tue
Light drizzle
22° 14°
models agree
Wed
Light rain
20° 11°
±7°
Thu
Partly cloudy
21° 10°
±9°
Fri
Drizzle
17° 13°
±4°
Sat
Light drizzle
19°
±6°

Luton, England is at its warmest in Aug (average highs near 21°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 1°C), with roughly 877 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Luton right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Luton climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
10°
Mar
10°
Apr
12°
May
16°
Jun
20°
11°
Jul
20°
12°
Aug
21°
12°
Sep
20°
12°
Oct
15°
Nov
10°
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Luton?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
94
/100rank #1
92±0.4°C96±1.1 mph9597% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
Met Office logo
Met Office
83
/100rank #2
91±0.5°C97±1.1 mph6581% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom
American logo
American
75
/100rank #3
81±1.1°C91±2.8 mph5877% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°25° to 26°±9%26% to 35% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree22° to 22°±1%13% to 14% chance
Tue±2°18° to 20°±7%51% to 58% chance
Wed±1°18° to 19°±7%3% to 10% chance
Thu±2°17° to 18°±4%18% to 22% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Luton

today, local time
Sunrise
06:22
Sunset
19:38
Daylight
13h 16m

Common questions

What's the weather in Luton today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Luton today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Luton today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Luton and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Luton?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Luton (CheckWeather Score 94/100), ahead of the Met Office at 83. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Luton?
August is typically the warmest month in Luton, with average highs around 21°C.
How cold does Luton get?
The coldest month in Luton is January, when overnight lows average about 1°C.
How much rain does Luton get?
Luton sees roughly 877 mm of precipitation a year, with September usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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