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CheckWeather UKKilmarnock
Forecast confidence: High · models disagree by 1°C

Kilmarnock weather

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Drizzle,rain likely tomorrow

Met Office, the European and the American model agree on a high near 19° in Kilmarnock today. Tomorrow looks heavy drizzle around 16°, with a 100% chance of rain.

19°13°
16°12°
14°11°
16°
16°10°
15°10°
Todaymodels agreeTomorrowmodels agreeTuesdaymodels agreeWednesdaymodels agreeThursdaymodels agreeFridaymodels agree
Met OfficeUKMO model
19°
Rain
Today 19°·Low 13°·Rain -
EuropeanECMWF
19°
Drizzle
Today 19°·Low 13°·Rain 83%
AmericanNOAA GFS
19°
Drizzle
Today 19°·Low 12°·Rain 100%

The weather map: all three models at once

Met Office, European, American side by side around Kilmarnock and nearby towns.Live rain radar →
Loading the three model maps…

Next 14 hours

consensus of the three models

14-day forecast

where the models agree, and where they split
Today
Drizzle
19° 13°
models agree
Tomorrow
Heavy drizzle
16° 12°
models agree
Tue
Drizzle
14° 11°
models agree
Wed
Cloudy
16°
models agree
Thu
Light drizzle
16° 10°
models agree
Fri
Light drizzle
15° 10°
models agree
Sat
Light rain
15°
models agree
Sun
Light rain
17° 12°
models agree
Mon
Drizzle
17° 11°
±3°
Tue
Drizzle
14° 10°
models agree
Wed
Drizzle
14°
±4°
Thu
Drizzle
15° 10°
±3°
Fri
Drizzle
14°
models agree
Sat
Light drizzle
14°
±3°

Kilmarnock, Scotland is at its warmest in Jun (average highs near 18°C) and coldest in Jan (lows around 3°C), with roughly 1652 mm of precipitation across the year. Below, compare what Met Office, European, American forecast for Kilmarnock right now, and see exactly where they disagree.

We grade every model against the weather that actually happened, so you can see which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom before you trust any single number.

Kilmarnock climate by month

average daytime high and overnight low across a typical year
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
12°
May
16°
Jun
18°
11°
Jul
17°
12°
Aug
17°
12°
Sep
17°
10°
Oct
13°
Nov
Dec

Which forecast is most accurate in Kilmarnock?

CheckWeather Score — graded against the weather that actually happened
ProviderCheckWeather Score🌡 Temp💨 Wind🌧 RainRun by
European logo
European ★ Best
93
/100rank #1
93±0.4°C97±0.9 mph8994% hitECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather ForecastsReading, United Kingdom
American logo
American
89
/100rank #2
86±0.8°C95±1.7 mph8994% hitNOAA / NCEP (United States)College Park, Maryland, USA
Met Office logo
Met Office
88
/100rank #3
89±0.6°C93±2.2 mph8290% hitMet Office (United Kingdom)Exeter, United Kingdom

The CheckWeather Score blends temperature, wind and rain accuracy — each measured against ERA5 (the recorded weather) over the last 30 days across 1880 cities. Lower error means a higher score. See which forecast model is most accurate in United Kingdom, how we measure forecast accuracy, or which model each weather app uses.

Where the models disagree

temperature and rain, judged separately
DayTemperatureRain
Today±1°19° to 19°±17%83% to 100% chance
Tomorrowmodels agree16° to 16°±3%97% to 100% chance
Tue±1°13° to 14°±8%88% to 96% chance
Wed±1°15° to 16°±1%27% to 28% chance
Thu±2°15° to 18°±4%71% to 75% chance

The models often agree on temperature and still split on rain — and rain is usually what decides whether a plan survives. A wide rain range means the shower is genuinely uncertain, not that the forecast is wrong.

Sunrise and sunset in Kilmarnock

today, local time
Sunrise
06:33
Sunset
19:59
Daylight
13h 26m

Common questions

What's the weather in Kilmarnock today?
On this page we show what Met Office, European, American each forecast for Kilmarnock today, side by side and updated live. When all three agree the forecast is reliable; when they split, we flag it so you know the day is genuinely less certain.
Will it rain in Kilmarnock today or tomorrow?
Check the hourly strip and 7-day forecast above. We compare rain from Met Office, European, American for Kilmarnock and flag the days where the models disagree on whether showers actually arrive, which is exactly when a single app can catch you out.
Which forecast is most accurate for Kilmarnock?
Over the last 30 days, the European model has been the most accurate for Kilmarnock (CheckWeather Score 93/100), ahead of the American at 89. We grade every model against the recorded weather. See the UK accuracy scoreboard for the full method.
What is the warmest month in Kilmarnock?
June is typically the warmest month in Kilmarnock, with average highs around 18°C.
How cold does Kilmarnock get?
The coldest month in Kilmarnock is January, when overnight lows average about 3°C.
How much rain does Kilmarnock get?
Kilmarnock sees roughly 1652 mm of precipitation a year, with December usually the wettest month.

Nearby

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